The Russians have been trying to surround Bakhmut for almost a month. They do not succeed — Ukraine defends the city. The situation at the front on the 390th day of a full-scale invasion, with maps

The main news of the last 10 days — the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for the arrest of the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin. He is suspected of a war crime — the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. In addition to Putin, a warrant was issued for Maria Lvova-Belova, the Commissioner for Childrenʼs Rights of Russia.

The warrant means that all countries that have ratified the Rome Statute and are members of the ICC must arrest Putin and hand him over to an international court. Currently, there are 123 such countries — almost all the states of Europe, South America and most of the countries of Africa. Most Asian countries, in particular China and India, are not part of the ICC.

The warrant does not mean that Putin will be tried in the near future. But the courtʼs decision will ruin the reputation of the Russian president. For most countries in the world, Putin is a person who is officially suspected of war crimes by an independent international court. This will affect their willingness to negotiate with him. It will strengthen Ukraineʼs decision and position: the Ukrainian authorities now have another argument in favor of not talking to Putin. The Russian elite also received a signal that somehow renegotiating or returning to the state before the invasions of 2014 and 2022 will no longer work. Even if Putin withdraws Russian troops from the occupied territories, releases prisoners and agrees to pay reparations, this will not overturn the case against him. The ICC will wait for him to be arrested and brought to The Hague, where he will be on trial.

In Russia, the spring draft for conscription begins on April 1. According to Russian independent military analysts who are abroad, Putin does not yet plan to announce a second wave of mobilization: the military commissars will not be able to cope with both it and conscription at the same time. However, the media report that Russians in more than 40 regions have started receiving summonses. Military commissars call men to clarify the data. Verstka writes that there they will be persistently offered to sign contracts and “of their own free will” go to war. The Kremlin allegedly expects to recruit about 400,000 volunteers.

Western media are increasingly reporting that China is allegedly supplying weapons to the Russian Federation. The publication Politico writes that from June to December 2022, Chinese companies sent assault rifles, parts for drones and body armor to Russia. The publication Kyodo wrote that the Russians began to use Chinese ammunition, but it is not known who exactly transferred it.

Against this background , Chinese leader Xi Jinping is going to Moscow for a meeting with Putin. Western media also wrote that Xi plans to hold talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Joe Biden later. Nikkei says Chinaʼs activity and Xiʼs desire to become a peacemaker are linked to a report by the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences. It reports directly to the Peopleʼs Liberation Army and regularly provides recommendations and reports to the Central Military Committee of the Communist Party. The report seemed to indicate that the war in Ukraine will come to an end around the summer of 2023, and “Russia will win.” The point was that both the Russian and Ukrainian economies would be too depleted to continue the war beyond the summer. When Beijing received the forecast, it allegedly prepared a "peace plan" in order to maintain normal relations with Europe and Ukraine, in particular to participate in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine.

In the Kharkiv region, the front line doesnʼt change. The Russians continue to control a small area in the northeast, near the Russian-Ukrainian border. The occupiers want to advance in the direction of Kupyansk and along the Oskil River in order to throw the Ukrainian army behind it. They are trying to attack in the area of the village of Hryanykivka, but without success.

In the Luhansk region, the Russians also advance every day, but without success. They advance hundreds of meters in separate directions. The occupiers are trying to attack the villages of Nevske and Makiivka. Fighting continues in the area of the village of Dibrova and in the forests south of the city of Kreminna. The main goal of the Russians is to push Ukrainian troops away from the cities of Kreminna and Svatove, as well as from the route between them.

On the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River — the administrative border of Luhansk region and Donetsk region — the Russians are trying to advance on the villages of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamyanske and Spirne. These points cover the flank of the Ukrainian military, which restrains the Russians behind Soledar, and prevents them from reaching Siversk quickly and simultaneously from several sides. The occupiers will pay less attention to this direction until they capture Bakhmut.

Since the beginning of March, the occupiers have not been able to close the ring around Bakhmut. The Ukrainian command insists on continuing to defend the city and constantly sends reinforcements there. This slows down the offensive of the invaders and prevents them from encircling Bakhmut. Therefore, the Russians are making more efforts to seize more territories around the city.

The occupiers made some progress along the Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway. They came close to the village of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, and also captured the small village of Zaliznyanske. To the south of the highway, Ukrainian troops prevent the occupiers from capturing the villages of Bohdanivka and Khromove, which are located near the Bakhmut — Chasiv Yar road. Therefore, the Russians are trying to bypass them from the west and advance towards Hryhorivka and the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal.

In Bakhmut, the occupiers continue to press from the south and north of the city. The advance from the east is slowed down by the Bakhmutka River, which is difficult for the Russians to cross. In the north of the city, fighting continues for the Artemivsk metal processing plant. In the south, the Russians are trying to get to the monument to the MiG-17 aircraft, which is located at the exit from the city. The goal of the occupiers is clear here. They cannot cut the roads to Bakhmut from Kostyantynivka and Chasiv Yar, so they want to block the exits from the city itself.

The Russians continue to advance around Avdiivka and have some success. Over the past 10 days, they captured the village of Krasnohorivka and approached the northern outskirts of the city, where the Avdiivsky coke-chemical plant is located. To the east of the city, fighting continues for the village of Kamyanka. But in the south and west of Avdiyivka, the Ukrainians managed to hold off Russian attacks. The invaders are trying to surround the city. For this, they need to cut the road to Avdiivka, which is located to the northwest. Also, the occupiers shell Avdiivka itself every day, in particular from aviation.

Battles continue for the cities of Maryinka and Vuhledar, but without success for the Russians. In Maryinka, the occupiers havenʼt been able to cross the cityʼs central street since February — fighting is going on along it. Near Vuhledar, the Russians try to get close to the city, but suffer heavy losses and return to their previous positions.

The front line does not change in the Zaporizhzhia region. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has yet attempted a large-scale attack in this direction, but they continue to fire each other.

On March 15, the Russians reported that the Ukrainian military was allegedly trying to attack in the direction from Zaporizhzhia. But the versions where exactly the attack took place were different. Later, Russian Telegram channels published a video showing the destroyed YPR-765 armored personnel carrier. The video was geolocated near the village of Robotyne, south of the city of Orikhiv. It isnʼt known when it was taken and when the armored personnel carrier was destroyed.

In the Kherson region, the front line does not change either — it stabilized along the Dnipro River. Mutual shelling across the river continues there. Most likely, the front line along the Dnipro here will remain unchanged until the occupied territory of the Zaporizhzhia region begins to be liberated.

On March 15th, another meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine was held in the Ramstein format. After the conclusion, many countries reaffirmed their previous pledges to supply weapons, and there were no new announcements.

On March 16, Sweden announced the exact number of Archer self-propelled artillery systems that it plans to transfer to Ukraine. The Ukrainian army will receive eight such self-propelled guns. Archer is considered one of the best modern self-propelled guns. It has a fully automatic charging system and digital targeting. The installation fires the entire ammunition for 21 shells in 3.5 minutes, and folds and unfolds in less than 30 seconds. Such a machine can quickly arrive at a position, fire 21 shells and leave in just 5-6 minutes.

For the first time since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine will receive combat aircraft. If this happened before, it wasnʼt announced publicly. Slovakia and Poland announced the transfer of fighters, they will give their MiG-29. Slovakia will hand over all 13 of its decommissioned MiGs — but some of them will be accepted only for spare parts. Slovakia will also hand over part of its Soviet-made "Kub", anti-aircraft missile systems. Itʼs currently unknown how many planes Poland will hand over. So far, the talks are about 10 fighters, but the Poles are allegedly ready to give all their MiGs — up to 30 of them.

On March 9, Poland handed over 10 more Leopard tanks to Ukraine, that is, it sent all 14 tanks that it had promised. In total, according to the Pentagon, nine countries promised to transfer 150 Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

Translated from Ukrainian by Anton Semyzhenko.

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