Chinese military experts predict that the war in Ukraine will end in the summer of 2023 — that is why Beijing presented its "peace plan".
The Japanese publication Nikkei Asia writes about it.
China officially released its 12-point peace plan on February 24, 2023. The proposal called for an early ceasefire and for the two sides to resume negotiations for a peaceful settlement. However, this was preceded by a December report from the Academy of Military Sciences (AMS), which reports directly to the Peopleʼs Liberation Army and regularly provides recommendations and reports to the Central Military Committee of the Communist Party.
According to sources close to the Chinese government, AMS completed a war simulation in Ukraine in December. The simulation showed that the war will come to an end around the summer of 2023, and "Russia will win." The report says that both the Russian and Ukrainian economies will be too depleted to continue the war beyond the summer.
The Nikkei suggests that it is possible that the results were skewed in Russiaʼs favor to please Chinaʼs pro-Moscow leadership. However, after hearing the AMS forecast, Beijing prepared a peace proposal for the anniversary of the war. It is aimed at achieving three goals, including the restoration of relations with Europe and the desire to maintain friendly relations with Ukraine. The peace plan includes provisions on economic recovery, suggesting that China is already considering economic aid. The ultimate desired goal is for China to play a leading role in securing a ceasefire.
The best-case scenario for Chinese leader Xi Jinping would be to start negotiations between Russia and Ukraine after he personally presents a peace plan to Putin. This would make China a real "peacemaker" in the cease-fire issue.
- On February 24, 2023, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China published a "peace plan" for the settlement of the war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Beijing calls for negotiations. It contains 12 principles, which, according to the authors, should contribute to the end of the Russian Federationʼs war against Ukraine. The word "war" is not mentioned in the document — in the English version of the document, the authors use the words "conflict" and "Ukrainian crisis".
- The head of the US Central Intelligence Agency William Burns stated on February 26 that he is "sure" that China is considering sending weapons to Russia. He also believes that the President of the Peopleʼs Republic of China Xi Jinping wants to create the conditions for Chinaʼs military invasion of Taiwan within four years.