In May, the Russians bombarded Kyiv 16 times with various missiles and drones, were pleased with the “capture” of Bakhmut, but missed the attack on the Belgorod region. The situation on the 460th day of the full-scale war

The Russian army continues to launch Shahed-136 missiles and kamikaze drones over Ukraine almost every night. In more than a year of full-scale invasion, Ukrainian air defenses have learned to shoot down almost 100% of Russian drones and cruise missiles. But in Ukraine, there are only a few complexes — Patriot and SAMP-T, which can shoot down ballistic, anti-aircraft and supersonic missiles, so they still remain a problem. Front-line areas suffer the most from such missiles, especially from the S-300.

On May 22, Russian volunteers launched a raid in the Belgorod region. They crossed the border in the Sumy region, in the area of the “Grayvoron” checkpoint, seized the checkpoint and moved on through the border villages. The fighters said that they reached the city of Grayvoron, which is 7 kilometers from the border. But most of the photos and videos were from the nearby village of Kozynka — itʼs a little closer. The next day, the Russian volunteers went back to the territory of Ukraine. They said they destroyed a lot of equipment and Russian troops, and took a Russian armored personnel carrier with them, but lost several armored vehicles.

For Ukraine, such a raid fulfilled two tasks. First of all, it showed that the Russian state border is very weakly protected, and almost all troops and equipment are fighting in Ukraine. Therefore, Russia will have to transfer more forces there for additional protection — that is, to reduce its grouping in Ukraine. Also, the raid interrupted the informational background of Bakhmut. The day before, there was euphoria in Russian Telegram channels due to the “capture” of the city, but the very next day only the events in the Belgorod region and the poorly protected border were discussed there.

On May 23, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the creation of the Marine Corps in Ukraine. For this, new infantry brigades will be formed. The Marine Corps is part of the Naval Forces of Ukraine, but the Corps is likely to become a separate branch of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

On May 24, the Ministry of Defense of Russia reported on an attempted attack by naval drones on the Russian military ship "Ivan Khurs", showed a video of the destruction of one of these drones and stated that the attack was repelled. Then a video from a drone appeared on social networks, showing that it was able to reach the side of the ship. But on May 26, the ship “Ivan Khurs” returned to Sevastopol on its own. No noticeable damage was visible on it.

The Wall Street Journal reported on the Westʼs plans for the July NATO summit. The Ukrainian allies are preparing to offer Ukraine the “Israeli security model”. The agreement will provide that priority will be given to Ukraine in the supply of weapons and advanced technologies. Western officials say the security pact would accommodate Ukraineʼs move to join NATO, but would not make the alliance a party to the conflict with Russia. The West believes that such an agreement with Ukraine will change Russiaʼs calculations regarding this war — Putin will refuse to prolong the conflict and try to undermine Ukraineʼs support from the West.

In the Kharkiv region, the frontline almost does not change. The Russians still control a small area in the northeast, near the Russian-Ukrainian border. The occupiers are trying to advance in the direction of Kupyansk and along the Oskil River in order to throw the Ukrainian army behind it. Over the past ten days, the Russians have advanced several hundred meters south of the village of Masyutivka.

In the Luhansk region, the Russians are not advancing either. The biggest battles continue in the area of the village of Dibrova and in the forests south of Kreminna. The main goal of the Russians is to push Ukrainian troops away from the cities of Kreminna and Svatove, as well as from the route between them.

On the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River — the administrative border of Luhansk region and Donetsk region — the Russians continue to attack the village of Bilohorivka and the villages of Verkhnyokamyanske and Spirne. These settlements cover the flank of the Ukrainian military, which restrains the Russians behind Soledar and prevents them from reaching Siversk quickly and simultaneously from several sides. The occupiers will pay less attention to this direction until they capture Bakhmut.

On May 20, the owner of Wagnerʼs PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin announced the capture of the last fortified districts of Bakhmut and the “capture” of the city. After that, he said that the Wagner troops were handing over their positions in Bakhmut to units of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and were going to the rear for rest and recovery.

Ukraine officially denies the loss of Bakhmut and assures that the Ukrainian military is holding positions in the “Litak” area. These are the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut, the entrance to the city is on the road Bakhmut — Kostyantynivka. It is currently unknown if the Russians are in the area of the WOG gas station at the entrance to Bakhmut, as well as in the private sector area south of it. Despite this, Bakhmut is still 99% occupied.

Ukrainian counterattacks on the flanks from Bakhmut also slowed down. The defense forces of Ukraine have cleared the Stupky tract southwest of the village of Ivanivske from the Russians and are trying to attack in the direction of Klishchiivka village. Meanwhile, the Russians throw reserves into battle to regain lost positions, but to no avail.

The Russians are not advancing in all other directions in Donetsk region. They captured only a few positions north of Avdiivka, but their attacks were repulsed in the areas of Pervomayske and Maryinka.

The front line does not change in the Zaporizhzhia region. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has yet attempted a large-scale attack in this direction, but they continue mutual shelling. The Russian army is preparing for defense in the Zaporizhzhia region: it is erecting fortifications and digging kilometer-long trenches.

Over the past ten days, regular shelling of the key occupied cities of the Azov region — Mariupol, Berdyansk, and Melitopol started. They are important logistical hubs for the Russian occupiers in the south of Ukraine, and the Russians set up their bases at the airfields there.

In the Kherson region, the front line does not change either — it stabilized along the Dnipro River. Mutual shelling continues there across the river. Most likely, the front line along the Dnipro here will remain unchanged until the beginning of the liberation of the Zaporizhzhia region.

The main event of the last ten days — the West agreed to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. This decision was finally confirmed at the G7 summit in Japan, where President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in person. It was then that the United States declared that it was not against the training of Ukrainian pilots and the transfer of such aircraft. But the States themselves are not yet ready to hand over their F-16s — European countries are planning to do so. Great Britain and the Netherlands are the most active in this direction. The British are ready to train Ukrainian pilots, but do not have F-16s in service. In return, the Dutch are ready to train the Ukrainians and hand over part of their planes.

In Germany, the Ukrainian military began training on American Abrams tanks. Initially, it will last 10-12 weeks. A total of 400 military personnel came to the training — 200 to operate tanks and 200 to maintain them. Thus, it is worth expecting that Abrams will appear in Ukraine closer to autumn.

The next meeting in the Rammstein format took place on May 25. According to its results, there were no breakthrough decisions, but several countries announced additional packages of military aid to Ukraine. For example, Spain promised to transfer four more Leopard 2 tanks and a batch of M113 armored personnel carriers.

The Wall Street Journal reported that South Korea is transferring hundreds of thousands of artillery shells to the USA, which in return are sending theirs to Ukraine. It took the United States several months to persuade Seoul to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons as the Pentagonʼs stockpile dwindles. Since the start of the full-scale war, the Pentagon has provided Ukraine with more than two million 155mm rounds of ammunition.

The Naval Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces received a new small armored artillery boat. It was called Bucha. The army emphasizes that such boats are inconspicuous for Russian radar and infrared detection devices. It also knows how to set smoke and heat curtains. Small armored artillery boats were supposed to be the basis of the Ukrainian "mosquito fleet". They were manufactured at the Kuznia na Rybalskomu plant in Kyiv. Such boats must protect the coastal zone, patrol the sea and repel a possible landing of enemy landings. Before the full-scale invasion, Ukraine had 7 such Ukrainian-made boats. One was sunk in the Sea of Azov, three more were captured by the Russians there.

Translated from Ukrainian by Anton Semyzhenko.

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