Since the beginning of the war against the United States and Israel, the Iranian authorities believed that they were winning by blocking the Strait of Hormuz and blocking about 20% of the worldʼs oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
But after the United States announced its own blockade on April 13, they blocked the network of Iranian shadow fleets that had been circumventing American sanctions for years. First of all, Iran supplied oil to China.
This is reported by The Wall Street Journal.
Alternative trade routes will not be enough. Iran is working to send some of its oil by rail to China and import food by road from the Caucasus and Pakistan. The Iranian Shipping Association said on April 30 that only 40% of Iranian trade can be redirected from blocked ports.
The risk of a worsening crisis has divided Iranʼs political landscape between moderates like President Massoud Pezeshkian and hardliners who believe the fire should be held down and a deal struck with President Trump, who they believe is seeking a quick exit from the complex war.
A growing camp of hardliners believes Iran should take the military initiative and start a war again to further drive up oil prices and increase pressure on Trump. They argue that the blockade goes beyond the sanctions Iran has faced in the past and is an act of war that requires a military response.
On April 30, Iranʼs Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a new threat to the United States.
"Foreigners who do evil should be in the depths of the water," he said in a written statement read by a state television anchor.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is threatening to escalate the escalation by cutting telephone cables in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting internet traffic worldwide. The Tasnim news agency, affiliated with the Corps, recently published a map of the undersea internet cables crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
On Monday, Trump ordered his aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade that could remain in place until Iran agrees to his nuclear demands. Iran is betting that America will be the first to back down and lift its blockade of Iranian ports to calm global markets and lower the price of American gasoline. American officials are betting that Iran will cave in as the economic crisis deepens.
The war has taken a huge toll on Iranʼs economy, with more than a million people unemployed, food prices soaring, and a prolonged internet shutdown crippling online businesses. The value of the Iranian rial has more than halved in a year, and the dollar exchange rate recently rose to 1.81 million rials.
War in the Middle East and negotiations between Iran and the US
On the morning of February 28, the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran. These attacks killed Iranʼs Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and almost the entire military leadership of the country — about 40 key high-ranking officials.
Iran, in response to the US and Israeli attacks, began shelling Arab countries and Israel. The war also halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea corridor between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. It was through it that almost a fifth of the worldʼs oil exports passed — tens of millions of barrels a day.
On April 8, the parties agreed to a two-week ceasefire. On April 13, the United States began a naval blockade of Iranian ports, demanding the complete unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz for all ships.
On April 17, Lebanon and Israel agreed to a ceasefire, after which Iran unblocked the Strait of Hormuz. However, on April 18, Iran reported that it was again blocking the Strait of Hormuz due to the US naval blockade. On the same day, Iran fired on several ships attempting to pass through the strait.
On April 19, Donald Trump reported that his representatives would go to Pakistan for talks. But Iran refused to send its delegation. The Foreign Ministry noted that the US had violated the ceasefire, and Iran "cannot forget the US attacks on it during previous talks".
On April 21, Trump wrote on Truth Social that he had extended the truce with Iran until the Iranians submitted their proposals and concluded discussions.
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