The US intelligence agencies are studying how Iranʼs leadership would react if the US President Donald Trump unilaterally declared victory in the war.
Reuters reports this, citing two American officials and another person familiar with the matter.
The intelligence community is analyzing the issue with other agencies at the request of senior White House officials. The goal is to understand the implications of Trump’s potential withdrawal from the war, which some officials and advisers say could lead to a significant defeat for Republicans in the congressional elections this fall.
While Trump has not yet made any decisions, a quick de-escalation could ease political pressure on the president, even if it results in an “empowered” Iran that could eventually resume its nuclear and missile programs and threaten US allies in the region.
According to one source, in the early days after the war began on February 28, intelligence assessed that if Trump declared victory and the US reduced its forces in the region, Iran would likely view it as a victory. If Trump instead declared the US had won but maintained a significant military presence, Iran would likely view it as a negotiating tactic, but not one that would necessarily end the war.
A White House source familiar with the situation said that various military options remain on the table, including renewed airstrikes on Iranʼs military and political leadership. Two sources said that a ground invasion of mainland Iran now appears less likely than it did a few weeks ago.
A White House official called the domestic pressure on the president to end the war “tremendous”. One source said Iran had taken advantage of the ceasefire that began on April 8 to dig up launchers, ammunition, drones and other materials that US and Israeli bombing had buried in the early weeks of the war.
War in the Middle East and negotiations between Iran and the US
On the morning of February 28, the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran. These attacks killed Iranʼs Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and almost the entire military leadership of the country — about 40 key high-ranking officials.
Iran, in response to the US and Israeli attacks, began shelling Arab countries and Israel. The war also halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea corridor between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. It was through it that almost a fifth of the worldʼs oil exports passed — tens of millions of barrels a day.
On April 8, the parties agreed to a two-week ceasefire. On April 13, the United States began a naval blockade of Iranian ports, demanding the complete unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz for all ships.
On April 17, Lebanon and Israel agreed to a ceasefire, after which Iran unblocked the Strait of Hormuz. However, on April 18, Iran announced that it was again blocking the Strait of Hormuz due to the US naval blockade. On the same day , Iran fired on several ships attempting to pass through the strait.
On April 19, Donald Trump announced that his representatives would go to Pakistan for talks. But Iran refused to send its delegation. The Foreign Ministry noted that the US had violated the ceasefire, and Iran "cannot forget the US attacks on it during previous talks".
On April 21, Trump wrote on Truth Social that he had extended the truce with Iran until the Iranians submitted their proposals and concluded discussions.
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