The winter-spring offensive of the Russians was a complete failure. This was stated by the head of the Main Department of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Kyrylo Budanov. The situation at the front also confirms this — the occupiers are advancing only in Bakhmut, capturing building after building. Also, they are still trying to advance around Avdiivka in the Donetsk region, but in the last week they have almost not captured new positions. In all other directions, the Russians did not advance and stopped major attacks. Budanov says that now the occupiers are moving to strategic defense, and the owner of Wagnerʼs PMC Yevgeniy Prigozhin calls on the Russian authorities to declare victory, stop "special military operation" and gain a foothold in the already captured territories. Meanwhile, Putin visited the headquarters of Russian troops in the occupied territories of Luhansk and Kherson regions.
The front line has almost stabilized. At the beginning of the year, the Russians launched their "big" offensive, and since then they have only been able to capture Soledar and almost completely take Bakhmut. The invaders were repulsed on the remaining lines of attack.
Western media continue to discuss Ukraineʼs future counteroffensive, talk to experts and sources in the military and political leadership of Ukraineʼs partner countries, and try to guess when and where it will begin. The Washington Post reported that the counteroffensive was delayed by bad weather, the leak of Pentagon documents, and slow deliveries of weapons and ammunition. Analysts emphasized that the Ukrainian offensive will be extremely difficult, since the Russians managed to dig in and build several lines of defense. This may lead to the fact that such a collapse of the front, as was the case in the Kharkiv region in the fall of 2022, will not happen, and Ukrainian troops will advance only a few dozens of kilometers. However, the head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, noted that Ukraine has an "excellent plan" for a counteroffensive, and its army has received a significant part of the opportunities for its implementation. Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, explained that the decision to launch a counteroffensive will be made at the last moment.
For the second week, Western media continue to publish various details from leaked Pentagon documents. The culprit of the leak has already been found — it is 21-year-old national guard Jack Teixeira from the state of Massachusetts. He worked in the intelligence wing and maintained an electronic system in which classified documents were distributed, which is why he had access to classified information, which he then published in a closed Discord channel. One of the documents states that the US does not see the possibility of ending the war before the end of 2023. There they believe that the hostilities will reach a dead end and will continue next year.
Meanwhile, in Russia, on April 11, the State Duma adopted a law on electronic subpoenas. Now Russians will be able to receive summonses to military commissariats in the electronic cabinet on the state website "Gosuslugi". Even if one doesnʼt go to the site, after 7 days the authorities will consider that they have received and read the summons. After the summon was sent to a person, he or she will be prohibited from traveling abroad. If the person doesnʼt come to the military commissariat, his/her driverʼs license will be canceled, then summoned will be prohibited from selling housing, receiving loans, etc. The State Duma also allowed Russians to go on contract service in the army immediately after school. And from now on, Russians can be enrolled in the military reserve even without their knowledge and a visit to the Military Commissariat. This may indicate the preparation of the Russian authorities for the second wave of mobilization.
For more than a month, the Russians have not launched massive missile strikes. In the last 10 days, they have hardly used the Shahed-136 kamikaze drones. The Russians launched them only at objects near the front line. However, they continue to use guided air bombs, which cause great damage to frontline and border towns and villages.
In the Kharkiv region, the front line does not change. The Russians still control a small area in the northeast, near the Russian-Ukrainian border. The occupiers are trying to advance in the direction of Kupyansk and along the Oskil River in order to throw the Ukrainian army behind it.
In the Luhansk region, the Russians are not advancing either. The biggest battles continue in the area of the village of Dibrova and in the forests south of Kreminna. The main goal of the Russians is to push Ukrainian troops away from the cities of Kreminna and Svatove, as well as from the route between them. But in more than two months, they advanced only a few kilometers.
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On the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River — the administrative border between Luhansk and Donetsk regions — the Russians continue to advance on the village of Bilohorivka and the villages of Verkhnokamyanske and Spirne. Near Bilohorivka, they were able to capture several Ukrainian positions and move closer to it. These settlements cover the flank of the Ukrainian military, which restrains the Russians behind Soledar, and prevents them from reaching Siversk quickly and simultaneously from several sides. The occupiers will pay less attention to this direction until they capture Bakhmut.
The Russians are slowly advancing in Bakhmut, they have been completely stopped around the city. Ukrainian troops are trying to hold the front line along the railway line, but the Russians have crossed it in the north and south. Currently, Ukraine controls the territory of the military unit and several high-rise blocks in the west of Bakhmut — a total of approximately 20% of the city. Also, Ukrainian troops actively mine buildings during retreat, and when the Russians enter them and take positions, they detonate them remotely.
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In all other directions in Donetsk region, the situation has hardly changed. The occupiers are slowly advancing to the east and north of Avdiivka, while destroying the city with aerial bombs. However, Avdiivka is still far from being surrounded. To the south of the city, the Russians have had no success for several weeks. Now the main fighting is going on to the west of the village of Novobakhmutivka along the road Kostyantynivka — Donetsk.
There are also battles in the town of Maryinka, but the Russians are unable to advance there. On the other hand, the situation has stabilized in the area of the city of Vuhledar, and the occupiers are not yet actively trying to advance.
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The front line does not change in the Zaporizhzhia region. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has yet attempted a large-scale attack in this direction, but they continue to fire each other.
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In the Kherson region, the front line does not change either — it has stabilized along the Dnipro River. Mutual shelling across the river continues there. Most likely, the front line along the Dnipro here will remain unchanged until the occupied territory of the Zaporizhzhia region begins to be liberated.
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On April 17, Slovakia announced that it had handed over all 13 of its Soviet MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine. Four of them were sent on their own at the end of March, and now the remaining 9 have been delivered by land. This may mean that a significant part of these aircraft is in poor condition and needs repair or will become a spare part donor for other Ukrainian fighters.
In leaked Pentagon documents, there is information that Egypt planned to secretly export projectiles for rocket launchers to Russia. But the plan stopped in March 2023. This was preceded by negotiations with high-ranking US officials. After that, Egypt approved the sale of 152 and 155 mm artillery shells to the USA, which will then be transferred to Ukraine. The documents indicate that Cairo allegedly planned to use its arms production capacity for Ukraine as leverage to obtain advanced US military equipment, including F-35 fighter jets and Patriot air defense systems.
On April 13, the Council of the European Union agreed to allocate one billion euros within the framework of the European Peace Fund for ammunition for the Defense Forces of Ukraine. This amount will allow the EU to reimburse member states for the cost of ammunition that they will transfer to Ukraine from their stocks or purchase from manufacturers.
Translated from Ukrainian by Anton Semyzhenko.
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The Ukrainian army fires from the Grad anti-aircraft missile defense system in the area of the city of Maryinka, the Donetsk region, on April 15, 2023.