Russiaʼs war against Ukraine will continue until 2024, with both sides refusing to negotiate and no one winning.
This was written by The Washington Post with reference to US intelligence assessments after the leak of Pentagon documents.
The leaked documents conclude that even if Ukraine regains a "significant" amount of territory and inflicts "unacceptable losses on Russian forces" (which US intelligence believes is unlikely), this will not lead to peace talks.
"Negotiations to end the conflict are unlikely during 2023 under all the scenarios considered," the document says.
The document also analyzes how Ukrainian and Russian military leaders will respond to challenges on the battlefield, and predicts that both sides will make only "minor" territorial gains this year.
Such a stalemate, where neither side achieves a definitive advantage, is described in the document as the "most likely scenario."
Some American officials are concerned that Ukraine will also increase its strikes on Russian territory. They fear that such attacks could force Putin to escalate or become an excuse for China to provide Russia with lethal weapons.
Such impasse may force Moscow to use reserves due to a reduction in combat power, the document says. The Kremlin can also accelerate the "integration" of the occupied territories into the Russian Federation. At the same time, according to American intelligence, the use of nuclear weapons by Russia remains unlikely.
- On April 6, it became known that classified military documents related to the counteroffensive of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the war against Russia were published on social networks (Twitter and Telegram). The published documents seem to differ from the initial version — they overestimate American estimates of the losses of the Ukrainian army and underestimate the probable number of Russians killed. But the photos of schedules of arms deliveries, the number of troops and battalions, and other plans look authentic. The Pentagon is conducting its own investigation.
- On April 7, it became known that the second batch of secret documents of the American authorities was published on the network. They are talking not only about Ukraine, but also about the activities of the USA in the Indo-Pacific region, in the Middle East, actions to fight terrorism, and rivalry with China.
- On April 9, Bellingcat reported that documents from the Pentagon began to appear on the Internet as early as January 2023 on some Discord servers where video game fans chatted.
- On April 10, the Pentagon confirmed that due to the leak of documents, "very sensitive secret" information became public.