In Bakhmut, the Ukrainian army controls several quarters, the rest of the city is occupied by the Russians. Ukraine is preparing for a counteroffensive. The situation at the front on the 430th day of the full-scale war

Russian troops have almost completely captured Bakhmut, only several blocks with high-rise buildings in the west remain under Ukrainian control. The Russians had cut off the main exits from the city, so there are only dirt roads left for exit, which are constantly under fire. The occupiers are trying to advance in the area of Avdiivka and Maryinka, but without success. In all other directions, the Russians continue to defend themselves and prepare for a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Western media continue to discuss the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive. Representatives of the Ukrainian authorities are constantly asked about this. Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov has already noted that the expectations of Ukrainians and the world regarding the counteroffensive are "somewhat overheated." However, he assures that everyone will know about its beginning immediately. And the head of the GUR (Main Department of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense), Kyrylo Budanov, explains that the Russians almost do not launch massive missile strikes on Ukraine in order to accumulate missiles to repel the Ukrainian attack.

The New York Times writes that Ukraine postponed the counteroffensive to May due to bad weather and slow arms deliveries. By the end of April, Ukraine, together with its partners, must prepare 12 new brigades that will be used for the attack. However, there are still problems with ammunition. The publication Politico writes about serious concerns in the White House, because if the Ukrainian counteroffensive fails, it will hit the American authorities hard. And from both sides at once: from supporters of the fact that Ukraine needs more help, and from those who believe that aid should be reduced. Washington is already allegedly advising Kyiv to start discussing more modest conditions for victory — for example, not the complete liberation of Ukrainian territory, but the stabilization of the front line, a temporary ceasefire, security guarantees for Ukraine from Western partners, and money for reconstruction. However, the authorities of Ukraine are much more optimistic about the upcoming counteroffensive.

The Washington Post continues to publish articles based on leaked Pentagon documents. Some of them contained an analysis of internal processes in Russia. In particular, the fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin supported the military leadershipʼs proposal to recruit an additional 400,000 soldiers for the war in 2023. Of these, 115,000 will immediately be sent to the front, and 300,000 to the reserve. In another document, it was said that even despite the sanctions and economic pressure, Russia will be able to cover the costs of the war for at least another year. And the Russian elites, although they mostly disagree with the Kremlinʼs policy, are not ready to oppose Putin.

On the night of April 24, explosions rang out again in Sevastopol. The occupation authorities announced another attack by sea drones, which they allegedly eliminated. Naval News, a profile publication about naval fleets, writes that the Russians are making great efforts to protect Sevastopol from naval drones. They have built at least six barricades at the entrances to the bays, and there are constant patrols in the sea and in the air to detect the drones as soon as possible. Meanwhile, Ukraine is trying to modernize maritime drones — at the BRAVE1 conference, they presented unmanned underwater torpedoes that can carry from 20 kilograms to 5 tons of explosives. The manufacturer claims that they can cover 2 thousand kilometers.

And already on the night of April 29 in Sevastopol, a fire broke out at the oil depot in Cossack Bay, where Russian ships refuel. The occupation authorities again announced an attack by drones, this time aerial ones.

For almost two months, the Russians did not launch massive missile strikes on Ukraine. But on April 28, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported the launch of 23 cruise missiles, 21 of which were shot down by air defense forces. One of the rockets hit a private house in Dnipro, killing a mother and child. Another hit a high-rise building in Uman. The rubble is still being dismantled there, so far it is known about 23 dead and 18 injured.

In the Kharkiv region, the front line does not change. The Russians still control a small area in the northeast, near the Russian-Ukrainian border. The occupiers are trying to advance in the direction of Kupyansk and along the Oskil River in order to throw the Ukrainian army behind it.

In the Luhansk region, the Russians did not advance either. The most serious fighting continues in the area of the village of Dibrova and in the forests south of Kreminna. The main goal of the occupiers is to push Ukrainian troops away from the cities of Kreminna and Svatove, as well as from the route between them.

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On the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River — the administrative border between the Luhansk and Donetsk regions — the Russians continue to attack the village of Bilohorivka and the villages of Verkhnyokamyanske and Spirne. In the area of the latter, the occupiers were able to recapture the compressor station, which had already changed hands several times during the full-scale invasion.

These settlements cover the flank of the Ukrainian military, which restrains the Russians behind Soledar, and prevents them from reaching Siversk quickly and simultaneously from several sides. The occupiers will pay less attention to this direction until they capture Bakhmut.

In Bakhmut itself, the Russians are completing the capture of the city. Several blocks with high-rise buildings remain under the control of Ukrainian troops. The occupiers actively use artillery and aerial bombs to destroy these high-rise buildings. During the retreat, they were also blown up by the Ukrainian troops in order not to leave convenient observation positions for the Russians and to eliminate those occupiers who managed to get there. The Russians have already cut off all the main roads from the city — only dirt roads remain, which are constantly shelled.

Around Bakhmut, the Russians again increased the pressure on the village of Khromove and on the Bakhmut—Chasiv Yar highway. In one section, they were even able to get close to this road, so the Ukrainian army can no longer use it to support the troops in Bakhmut.

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Most likely, in the near future, the Ukrainian military will completely withdraw from Bakhmut and take up defense in new positions. However, the greater Russian offensive has almost choked, and they suffered serious losses in Bakhmut. Therefore, it is unlikely that after capturing the city, they will have the strength to continue pushing with the same pressure. In addition, the next city on their way — Chasiv Yar — is located on a hill. Obviously, the Russians will stop and start regrouping and preparing for a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

In all other directions in the Donetsk region, the situation has hardly changed. The occupiers are slowly advancing north and south of Avdiyivka, simultaneously destroying the city with aerial bombs, but its encirclement is still a long way off. The main battles continue to the west of the village of Novobakhmutivka along the road Kostyantynivka—Donetsk, as well as in the area of the villages of Pervomaiske and Nevelske.

Battles continue in the town of Maryinka, but the Russians are unable to advance there. On the other hand, the situation has stabilized in the area of the city of Vuhledar, and the occupiers are not yet trying to actively advance. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been reporting for the last week that the Russians are attacking only in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka areas.

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The front line does not change in the Zaporizhzhia region. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has yet attempted a large-scale attack in this direction, but they continue to fire each other. The Russian army is preparing for defense: it is building fortifications and digging kilometer-long trenches.

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In the Kherson region, the front line does not change either — it is stabilized along the Dnipro River. Most likely, the front line along the Dnipro here will remain unchanged until the occupied territory of the Zaporizhzhia region begins to be liberated.

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on April 23 that Ukrainian troops had taken up positions on the left bank of the Kherson region. Such a conclusion was drawn there due to Russian videos showing artillery hitting Ukrainian positions on the left bank of the Dnipro, opposite Kherson. Coastal dachas are located there. This ISW statement was interpreted in the media and social networks as the fact that Ukraine forced the Dnipro River and created a bridgehead.

In fact, there is nothing new in this, because after the liberation of Kherson in November 2022, Ukraine regularly sends sabotage and reconnaissance groups to the other shore.

These are small groups of infantry that arrive in speedboats and occupy coastal houses. They can destroy Russian positions or small ammunition depots, or conduct reconnaissance. In addition, they do not need to stay there permanently — after the task, the Ukrainian military returns to the right bank. This cannot be called the creation of a bridgehead.

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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Western partners have already transferred 98% of the promised equipment to Ukraine. This refers to 230 tanks, 1,550 armored vehicles, and a lot of ammunition. Thanks to this, it was possible to prepare more than 9 new Ukrainian armored brigades.

Modern Western air defense systems continue to arrive in Ukraine. For the first time, Ukraine received Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems that can shoot down ballistic missiles. Also, Germany transferred another IRIS-T system to Ukraine, and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that there is already a Skynex system on combat duty in Ukraine. This is a short-range system that is supposed to shoot down drones and cruise missiles with 35 mm ammunition.

The next meeting in the Rammstein format took place on April 21. According to its results, Latvia promised to transfer all available Stinger anti-aircraft missile complexes to Ukraine. And the countries that are part of the "tank coalition" agreed to create a base in Poland for the repair of Western tanks. Denmark and the Netherlands have promised to provide Ukraine with 14 more Leopard 2 tanks, but they will not arrive until the beginning of 2024.

Translated from Ukrainian by Anton Semyzhenko.

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