In February 2023, the main operational department of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces reported on "successful efforts at operational camouflage" — they allegedly convinced Ukrainian intelligence of the possibility of a new attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.
This is reported by Radio Liberty with reference to a secret document of the US Ministry of Defense that got into the network during a large-scale leak.
The document states that the "operational camouflage" operation took place from February 3 to 10. According to the Pentagon, the heads of the Main Operational Directorate of the Russian General Staff stated that they "successfully convinced the Ukrainian intelligence services of the possibility of a joint Russian-Belarusian offensive from Belarusian territory."
As evidence, the representative of the Russian General Staff cited the report of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia on Ukraineʼs reaction to reports of joint aviation exercises between Belarusians and Russians in January, about the transfer of Iskander-M to Belarus from the Russian Federation, as well as about shifting the focus of Russian-Belarusian exercises from defensive to offensive.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine also allegedly believed that the training of mobilized Russians in Belarus was an attempt by the Russian Federation to secretly form units for an offensive in the Volyn direction in order to prevent the delivery of western military equipment to Ukraine.
The document states that the Main Operations Department of the General Staff of the Russian Army recommended continuing the disinformation operation of the Ukrainian command regarding the probability of an attack from the territory of Belarus, dividing it into two phases. The first phase was supposed to last until March 6, the second — from March 6 to 11. Plans for both phases were to be sent to the General Staff of Belarus for approval.
- In December 2022, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhny informed that the Russians were training approximately 200 000 new soldiers. He had no doubt that they would try to go to Kyiv a second time.
- In January 2023, Ukrainian military intelligence called a repeated attack on Kyiv "unlikely" and declared that it was a Russian psychological operation. The USA also saw no signs of Russiaʼs preparations for an offensive on Kyiv. Ukrainian border guards stated that no offensive group is forming on the territory of Belarus, and the occupiers are inciting the situation.