Israel has delayed its attack on Iran in response to the October 1 strike after last weekʼs leak of the US intelligence about its preparations.
The Times writes about it.
The confidential document was published last Friday on the pro-Iranian Telegram channel Middle East Spectator. The documents, which were allegedly drawn up by the US National Geospatial Intelligence Agency and the countryʼs National Security Agency, are dated October 15 and 16.
The documents discussed, in particular, the training of the Israeli Air Force using surface-to-air missiles. Two Israeli ballistic missiles — Golden Horizon and Rocks — were mentioned. The document also contained information that Israel has nuclear weapons, which the country has never publicly acknowledged. At the same time, the US sees no signs that Israel plans to use nuclear weapons against Iran.
Previously, the chief suspect in the leak of secret documents was considered to be the chief of staff of the US assistant secretary of defense for special operations Arian Tabatabai of Iranian origin. However, the Pentagon denied this information.
This situation once again raised questions for the US military leadership. Last year, a 21-year-old junior American pilot published a classified material on the Discord platform with detailed US assessments of Ukraineʼs hostilities against Russia.
Israel is concerned that the leak could help Iran predict certain attack strategies. As The Times noted, Israel was forced to develop an alternative plan.
“The leak of American documents delayed the attack due to the need to change certain strategies and components. There will be retaliation, but it has taken longer than expected,” an intelligence source familiar with the discussions in Israel told The Times.
The "leaked" documents did not mention potential targets for an attack on Iran, but the US warned Israel not to strike Iranʼs nuclear infrastructure or oil industry. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has assured the US that IDF will only strike military targets.
The most likely targets of Israel are considered to be the facilities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its paramilitary Basij volunteer formation. Following the leak of intelligence, which is being investigated by the FBI, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited Israel. During the meeting with Netanyahu, Blinken pressed him to restrain Israelʼs aggressive response.
"We support Israel and will always support and defend it. But it is very important that Israel responds in a way that does not create an even greater escalation and the risk of the conflict spreading," said Blinken after the meeting.
The US has strengthened Israelʼs air defenses by providing the country with the Thaad (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) system to shoot down ballistic missiles in the event of another Iranian attack. The anti-aircraft battery is serviced by almost 100 American servicemen currently stationed in Israel.
In April, Iran struck Israel with ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drones. In response, Israel destroyed a radar station near the city of Isfahan in central Iran. The weapons mentioned in the US intelligence leak suggest that Israel may have been planning a similar attack.
Rocks is a long-range air-to-surface missile that can be launched from F-16 or F-35 fighter jets. They are manufactured by the Israeli company Rafael. And the Golden Horizon missile, according to Israeli media, can be a ballistic missile with a range of about two thousand kilometers, which is launched from the air. The advantage of using missiles of this range from fighter jets is that Israeli pilots do not have to cross the airspace of other countries in the Middle East.
In anticipation of the Israeli attack, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi toured the Middle East and visited countries such as Jordan, Iraq and the Persian Gulf countries, trying to convince them to close their airspace to Israeli planes.
What preceded
Since mid-September, Israel has intensified its attacks on the Iranian-controlled Lebanese group Hezbollah.
On September 17, hundreds of pagers belonging to Hezbollah members exploded in Lebanon. As a result, 12 people died and thousands were injured. Already on September 18, a repeated series of explosions rang out in Lebanon — radios used by Hezbollah members and car radios were detonated.
Already on September 20, IDF struck the high command of Hezbollah in Beirut. The commander of the groupʼs missile division Ibrahim Kubaisi was killed in the attack. And within a week, on September 27, IDF struck the Hezbollah headquarters in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. The next day, the Israel Defense Forces and Hezbollah confirmed that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in the attack.
In response, Iran fired hundreds of missiles at Israel on October 1.
- Over the past few months, Israel has eliminated the previous leader of Hamas Ismail Haniya and his successor Yahya Sinwar. The media reported that Nasrallahʼs alleged successor Hashim Safi al-Din had already been eliminated.
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