Reuters: Iranʼs ability to create nuclear weapons has not diminished, even despite war

According to US intelligence, the time it would take Iran to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, when analysts estimated that the Twelve-Day War in June had pushed the deadline back by a year.

Reuters reports this, citing two intelligence sources and another person familiar with the matter.

US and Israeli attacks during the war, which began on February 28, have focused on conventional military targets, but Israel has struck several key nuclear sites. The consistent timeline suggests that disrupting Iranʼs nuclear program requires removing or destroying Iranʼs stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates that this stockpile is enough to make 10 bombs, with further enrichment.

Two sources said that US intelligence agencies concluded before the war in June 2025 that Iran could likely build a nuclear weapon in about three to six months. After that war, that timeframe shifted to about nine months to a year.

Accurately assessing Iranʼs nuclear capabilities is difficult even for the worldʼs leading intelligence agencies. Several US intelligence agencies have independently studied Iranʼs nuclear program, and while sources describe a broad consensus on Iranʼs ability to build nuclear weapons, there are other estimates.

Some officials, including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have argued that US strikes on Iranian air defenses have reduced the nuclear threat by reducing Iranʼs ability to defend its nuclear facilities if it decides to rush to develop weapons in the future. The fallout from Israelʼs assassinations of top Iranian nuclear scientists should also be considered.

War in the Middle East and negotiations between Iran and the US

On the morning of February 28, the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran. These attacks killed Iranʼs Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and almost the entire military leadership of the country — about 40 key high-ranking officials.

Iran, in response to the US and Israeli attacks, began shelling Arab countries and Israel. The war also halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea corridor between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. It was through it that almost a fifth of the worldʼs oil exports passed — tens of millions of barrels a day.

On April 8, the parties agreed to a two-week ceasefire. On April 13, the United States began a naval blockade of Iranian ports, demanding the complete unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz for all ships.

On April 17, Lebanon and Israel agreed to a ceasefire, after which Iran unblocked the Strait of Hormuz. However, on April 18, Iran reported that it was again blocking the Strait of Hormuz due to the US naval blockade. On the same day, Iran fired on several ships attempting to pass through the strait.

On April 19, Donald Trump reported that his representatives would go to Pakistan for talks. But Iran refused to send its delegation. The Foreign Ministry noted that the US had violated the ceasefire, and Iran "cannot forget the US attacks on it during previous talks".

On April 21, Trump wrote on Truth Social that he had extended the truce with Iran until the Iranians submitted their proposals and concluded discussions. And on May 1, Axios wrote, citing a letter from Trump to House Speaker Mike Johnson, that Trump considered the war over.

On May 4, Donald Trump announced the launch of Operation Project Freedom to help neutral ships leave the Persian Gulf.

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