Russian special services warned Russian President Putin at least two or three days in advance that Prigozhin was preparing a rebellion. However, some representatives of the security forces believed that the preparations for the rebellion could be Prigozhinʼs bluff in order to gain more leverage.
The Washington Post writes about this with reference to sources.
According to the newspaper, the Russians have increased security measures at several strategic sites, in particular, in the Kremlin — there they increased the number of presidential guards and distributed more weapons, but did not take any further measures.
"Putin had time to make a decision to liquidate [the rebellion] and arrest the organizers. Then when it started to happen, there was paralysis on every level... There was absolute terror and confusion. They didnʼt know how to react for a long time," one of the European officials told reporters.
The lack of orders from the Kremlinʼs high command forced local officials to decide on their own how to act, WP interlocutors said. Without clear orders, the local authorities and the military decided not to interfere with the PMC "Wagner".
"The local government did not receive any commands from the management. From our point of view, this is the biggest sign of an unhealthy situation inside Russia. An authoritarian system is formed in such a way that without a very clear leadership team, people do nothing. When the leadership is in confusion and disorder, the situation is the same at the local level, even worse," a senior Ukrainian official told reporters.
European security officials are sure that many of the Russian elite support Prigozhinʼs desire to remove Russiaʼs top military leadership.
"Some people supported Prigozhin and the fact that the leadership needs to be cleaned, that the fish is rotting from the head," said one of these officials.
- On the evening of June 23, the founder of the Russian PMC Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin accused the Russian military of hitting the mercenary rear camp, "a huge number of fighters died." The command for the destruction of the PMC "Wagner" was allegedly given by Chief of the General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov after a meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Prigozhin informed about the beginning of the "march of justice", took control of Rostovʼs military facilities, including the airfield, and the "Wagnerians" began to move towards Moscow.
- On the evening of June 24, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus Aleksander Lukashenko agreed with Prigozhin "about the inadmissibility of unleashing a bloody massacre on the territory of Russia." Then Prigozhin informed that they were disbanding the columns and returning to the field camps. After that, it became known that Prigozhin would go to Belarus (Ukraine was assured that there was no threat of an attack by the "Wagnerians" from the north).
- On June 26, Yevgeny Prigozhin said that he started the mutiny in Russia because the local authorities wanted to liquidate the PMC from July 1 and transfer the fighters to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
- According to CNN, US intelligence officials believe that Prigozhin had long been planning to seriously challenge the Russian military leadership, but what his ultimate goal was is unknown. Presumably, Prigozhin also informed about his plans to the deputy commander of the Russian army Serhiy Surovikin, which was previously reported by The New York Times newspaper.