Russia is preparing a provocation on the border with Ukraine, probably to draw the Belarusian army into a war against the Ukrainian state.
According to the Center of National Resistance under the Special Operations Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a group of 80-90 people with light armored vehicles and engineering units arrived in the village of Krupeyki, Gomel region. The group is involved in the PMC "League", which is part of the PMC "Wagner".
At the same time, Belarus has already imposed a temporary restriction on entry and exit near the border strip of the Loyiv District, which borders Chernihiv region.
"One of the scenarios of the provocation is the shelling of the territory of Belarus allegedly by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. After all, we are talking about those mercenaries who arrived in Belarus on September 20. Then, 300 units of Ukrainian military uniforms, which the Russians seized from warehouses in Kherson region, were delivered to the territory of the Belarusian private security company GuardService, where mercenaries were stationed," the Central Security Service noted.
- In December, Belarusian and Russian troops conducted coordination exercises. Russia also imports military equipment to Belarus, and its mobilized soldiers undergo training there.
- The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi stated that the Russians are training approximately 200 000 new soldiers, and that he has no doubt that they will try to go to Kyiv a second time. The Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov and the commander of the OC "South" also believe that Russia plans to launch another wave of offensive in February 2023. The commander of the United Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev, also stated that the risk of an offensive by occupation troops from the territory of Belarus is gradually increasing.
- On December 20, Russia began to transfer equipment and personnel that were on Belarusian training grounds closer to the border with Ukraine.