Europe faces "unprecedented risks" to its natural gas supplies this winter after Russia cut off most pipeline supplies. It could also lose out to Asiaʼs competition for already scarce and expensive liquefied natural gas, which comes by ship.
This is stated in the report of the International Energy Agency, writes The Assocaited Press.
In its quarterly report, the agency stated that the countries of the European Union will have to reduce gas consumption by 13% during the winter in the event of a complete shutdown of supplies by Russia. Much of this reduction would be due to consumer behavior, such as lower temperatures, as well as industrial and utility savings.
On Friday, the EU agreed to commit to reducing electricity consumption by at least 5% during peak hours. Only a small fraction of Russian gas still flows through pipelines through Ukraine to Slovakia and across the Black Sea through Turkey to Bulgaria. Two other routes, along the bottom of the Baltic Sea to Germany and through Belarus and Poland, were closed.
Another danger in the study was a sharp cold snap in late winter, which would be especially challenging because underground gas reserves are slower to come in late in the season due to less gas and lower storage pressure. The EU is already 88% full of storage, ahead of its target of 80% by winter.
Businesses in Europe have already reduced their use of natural gas, sometimes simply by abandoning energy-intensive activities such as steel and fertilizer production, while smaller businesses such as bakeries are experiencing severe cost reductions.
High prices for gas, which is used to heat homes, generate electricity and a range of industrial processes, are fueling record inflation in the 19 EU member states that use the euro and eroding consumer purchasing power so much that economists are predicting a recession in the European economy in late 2022 and the beginning of 2023.
European governments and utilities have made up much of Russiaʼs deficit by buying expensive shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which comes by ship from countries such as the United States and Qatar, and by increasing pipeline supplies from Norway and Azerbaijan.
- On September 26, in one day, the Russians recorded a drop in pressure at once on two of their gas pipelines to Europe — on "Nord Stream" and "Nord Stream — 2", which were never put into operation. Both gas pipelines are almost not working and are not pumping gas from Russia to Europe. "Nord Stream — 2" was never launched due to the invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine, and "Nord Stream" was almost completely stopped in the summer due to problems found. Initially, three gas leaks were recorded on the pipelines, and already on September 29, Sweden reported a fourth leak.
- The countries of the EU, the USA and NATO believe that the pipelines were sabotaged. Seismologists said that they recorded underwater explosions in the leakage zones.
- Citing sources in British intelligence, The Times newspaper wrote that the "Nordic Streams" were attacked by Russian underwater drones. Russiaʼs involvement is under investigation. In the Russian Federation itself, traditionally, all accusations are rejected.