Before the invasion, Russia wanted to destabilize the situation in Ukraine. They planned to organize both pro-Russian and far-right protests in order to put pressure on the central government in Ukraine from different sides.
This is stated in the report of the British Royal Institute of Defense Studies.
Each protest had to have its own organizers. For example, General of the SBU and former head of the SBU administration in Crimea Oleh Kulinich actively communicated with the former secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Volodymyr Sivkovich, who fled to Russia after the Revolution of Dignity. From Sivkovych, he received the task of persuading the Ukrainian authorities to make concessions to Russia immediately before the invasion — to abandon the movement towards NATO and return to neutral status. According to the plan of the Russian Federation, this should cause large-scale protests like Euromaidan and destabilize the situation in Ukraine, which would help during the invasion.
In January 2022, Ukraine detained former police colonel Yury Holuban. According to the investigation, he was supposed to organize such protests in Kyiv and three oblasts. At the rallies, far-right rhetoric and symbolism should prevail, and the protesters would accuse the authorities of their inability to stand up to the Russian Federation. Russia wanted to launch provocateurs into these protests, which would cause clashes with the police. To the Russian audience, this would look like a "far-right coup" and should have justified the invasion.
Meanwhile, Russia was creating the basis for pro-Russian protests. The party "Opposition Platform — For Life" (OPZZh), one of its leaders Viktor Medvedchuk, as well as the MPs Ilya Kiva and Viktor Chornyi, were engaged in this direction. This is also a typical tactic for the Russian Federation — support for the most polarized groups that put pressure on the central government from different sides.
In 2020, Kiva created the organization "Patriots for Life", which included mainly members of various martial arts clubs, former law enforcement officers, representatives of crime, etc. The basis of the organization was made up of representatives of the Combat Sambo Federation of Ukraine, whose honorary president was Medvedchuk. The main task of "Patriots for Life" became provocations during protests, in particular clashes with pro-Ukrainian activists.
- On March 15, the Verkhovna Rada voted to strip Ilya Kyva of the MPsʼ parliamentary mandate.
- On March 29, the investigators of the State Bureau of Investigation reported another suspicion against former MP Ilya Kivi — for propaganda of war and calls for a violent change of power. On April 20, the court allowed an absentee investigation against Ilya Kyva. On May 10, the SBI referred Kyvaʼs case to court. He faces up to 15 years in prison with confiscation of property.