The group of Russian troops, which is deployed in Belarus, the Bryansk and Kursk regions of Russia, is half the size of the group that was involved in the attack on Kyiv on February 24 — 22 000 against 45 500 occupiers.
This was stated during a briefing on December 29 by the Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksiy Hromov.
Even if all Belarusian combat units are involved, the joint grouping of troops will number about 30 000 people, which is still less than that which participated in a full-scale invasion.
In addition, Russia removed from Belarus all stocks of ammunition for artillery systems and rocket launcher systems, which were created in the interests of the Russian army on the eve of the attack on Ukraine.
However, according to Hromov, Russia is expanding its control over Belarusian military airfields. Currently, there is ongoing work on the additional equipment of the airfield "Machulyshchi" (it is planned to turn it into a key logistics hub for the needs of the Russian army), "Baranovichi" and "Lunynets".
- The head of Ukrainian military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov informed that currently no intelligence information indicates an imminent threat of a second invasion from the territory of Belarus. However, the long-term risks of this remain.
- The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi said that the Russians are training approximately 200 000 new soldiers, and that he has no doubt that they will try to go to Kyiv a second time. The Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov and the commander of the OC "South" also believe that Russia plans to launch another wave of offensive in February 2023. The commander of the United Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev said that the risk of an offensive by the occupying forces from the territory of Belarus is gradually increasing. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also noted that the Kremlinʼs actions indicate Russiaʼs plans to renew its attack on Ukraine, and the Russiansʼ calls for negotiations are an attempt to buy time for the preparation and regrouping of troops.
- On December 20, Russia began to transfer equipment and personnel that were on Belarusian training grounds closer to the border with Ukraine.