Oil prices surged more than 7% in early trading on Sunday evening and remained high through Monday, driven by failed talks between the United States and Iran and concerns about a possible naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Axios writes about this.
The benchmark Brent crude rose more than $7 per barrel to $102.29. The US WTI crude rose about $8 to $104.56.
The drop in prices that followed the announcement of a ceasefire in the Middle East has virtually disappeared. Analysts do not believe that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will resume quickly, even despite the agreement on a pause in hostilities.
Experts warn that due to the risks of attacks and blockades, oil transportation volumes through the strait may remain significantly below pre-war levels, which will continue to put pressure on world prices.
Analysts also believe that China may step up pressure on the US and Israel due to its dependence on Iranian supplies, while Iran may step up attacks on energy infrastructure in response to Trumpʼs blockade.
The day before, the US President Donald Trump reported his intention to impose a naval blockade of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz from 5:00 PM. Kyiv time on April 13 due to the failure of negotiations in Pakistan.
War in the Middle East and negotiations between Iran and the US
On the morning of February 28, the US and Israel launched an attack on Iran. Iranʼs Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and almost the entire military leadership of the country — about 40 key high-ranking officials — were killed.
Iran, in response to the US and Israeli attacks, began shelling Arab countries and Israel. The war also halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which almost a fifth of the worldʼs oil exports passed. This led to a sharp increase in oil and gas prices.
On the night of April 8, Trump wrote that he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Later, Iran published a 10-point peace plan: under it, the parties would cease hostilities, the US would withdraw troops from the Middle East and would no longer attack Iranian bases, and ships would have limited access to the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks.
Iran would also be required to lift primary and secondary sanctions and compensate for losses. Iran would commit not to developing nuclear weapons, and the US would recognize Iranʼs right to enrich uranium.
But on the afternoon of April 8, the Prime Minister of Pakistan said that ceasefire violations had been recorded in several places in the conflict zone in the Middle East.
Reuters sources reported that Iran had struck the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia, which is currently the only channel for exporting crude oil from the country, and other facilities. Before that, Iran reported an American attack on the refinery on Laban Island and threatened to respond.
At the same time, Israel launched its largest attack on Lebanon since the start of the new war: in 10 minutes, the Israeli army attacked more than 100 sites of the pro-Iranian Hezbollah, killing more than 350 people. Israel claims that the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon, while Pakistani mediators wrote that the cessation of hostilities also applies to Lebanon.
Negotiations between the United States and Iran took place in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on April 11-12. They lasted almost 21 hours. The parties failed to reach an agreement on a final end to the war, with the Americans citing Iranʼs reluctance to give up its nuclear program as the main reason.
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