China has increased its ability to launch a surprise strike on Taiwan through air and combat operations.
This is reported by the Financial Times, citing representatives of the defense departments of Taiwan and the United States and experts.
A senior Taiwanese military official said that Chinaʼs air force and missile forces have improved to the point where they can "go from peacetime to combat operations at any moment". Other Taiwanese defense officials said that Chinaʼs missile systems are capable of hitting any point on the island. China is currently constantly training landing forces near ports from which an invasion of Taiwan is possible. And helicopter units are on constant alert to land on the island.
According to Taiwanʼs Ministry of Defense, Chinese military aircraft enter Taiwanʼs air defense zone more than 245 times a month — five years ago there were fewer than 10 such "visits". In addition, about 120 crossings of the median line in the Taiwan Strait are recorded every month, which effectively destroys this unofficial border.
“This in itself is clear evidence of escalation and continued pressure in the airspace against Taiwan,” a US defense official said.
A Taiwanese military official explained that this increase in air power was made possible by the expansion of the combat radius of the Chinese Air Force. The latest J-10, J-11, J-16 and J-20 fighters are capable of reaching Taiwan from air bases deep in China without refueling, which previously required bases on the coast. In addition, China uses Y-20 tanker aircraft. The Chinese navy has also been significantly strengthened. Since 2022, it has been constantly patrolling the waters of the Miyako and Bashi Straits, the only passages to the Pacific Ocean for Chinese ships.
Former chief instructor of Taiwanʼs military command, Yang Tai-yuan, said that in the event of an invasion, Chinese ships should have gone to the Pacific Ocean in advance to avoid being trapped near Chinese shores once hostilities began. He said that last yearʼs concentration of Chinese military ships in the western Pacific was a rehearsal for such a scenario.
A US military official said that around a dozen Chinese Peopleʼs Liberation Army and Coast Guard ships are constantly stationed around Taiwan. The ports are located nearby, which allows the fleet to "go into blockade mode within hours".
The Taiwanese official said the presence creates the conditions for a surprise air assault. Taipei is closely monitoring the helicopters China deploys on Type 075 destroyers and amphibious assault ships, as they could be used to land special forces on the island.
“These advanced maritime deployments shorten both the distance and time to reach Taiwan,” he added.
Xi initiated a sweeping reform of the People’s Liberation Army’s command structure back in 2015. Experts say the large-scale exercises around Taiwan following a visit by the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in 2022 showed that China had mastered joint operations across the military branches, a key goal of that reform.
The biggest changes came in the NPAʼs ground forces, which were supposed to provide a massive presence—hundreds of thousands of troops—to capture and hold Taiwan. Xiʼs reform divided large formations into smaller, more flexible units, including six combined amphibious brigades deployed along the coast opposite Taiwan.
A senior Taiwanese military official stressed that the NPA only needs “minimal time to transition” to active combat operations, as the troops “are constantly training at bases and are already stationed near ports from which they can depart”.
- Tensions in the Asia-Pacific region are rising amid Chinaʼs threats to seize Taiwan, a US ally. The ruling Communist Party considers Taiwan part of its territory. Beijing has increasingly promised to "reunify" the island with mainland China by 2022. The 46th US President Joe Biden has said the United States would defend Taiwan if attacked.
- In March 2023, Chinese leader Xi Jinping called on Chinaʼs troops to prepare for war, and on the eve of 2024 said that "reunification" was inevitable. Taiwanʼs Foreign Ministry predicts a possible attack by China in 2027.
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