The US intelligence has received information that Putin may be changing his strategy in the war against Ukraine. He allegedly wants to focus on strengthening control over the captured territories and supporting Russiaʼs weakened economy.
CNN was informed about this by informed sources.
The suggestion of a shift in the Kremlinʼs approach plays into the belief of President Donald Trump and his negotiators that the Russian leader is more willing to consider potential deals than before. Earlier intelligence assessments suggested that Putin viewed the situation on the front as favourable to him and had enough resources to seize all of Ukraine.
However, senior American officials remain skeptical of Putinʼs claims of a desire for peace. There is a belief that even if Russia agrees to the proposed deal, it could later resume hostilities to seize even more Ukrainian territory.
“It seems to me that he [Putin] can think — I don’t want to say less broadly — but focusing on goals that are achievable in the near term,” said an anonymous Western intelligence official.
The Russian leader is under pressure not only from his countryʼs internal economic difficulties, but also from an increasingly aggressive Trump administration that is threatening new sanctions. The talks emphasize potential investment from Washington if the war ends. According to the Americans, these are "historic" opportunities.
The CNN source agrees that Moscow is willing to play by the US rules and limit its goals to improve relations with the country.
“It is clear that it [Russia] has not abandoned its maximalist military goals,” the official stressed. He is convinced that the Kremlin also seeks to occupy the entire territory of Ukraine.
Russia hopes that establishing contact with the US "will divert attention after a tactical pause. Then he [Putin] will be able to again use a combination of military, economic, informational, and political tools to achieve goals in Ukraine and beyond", the source added.
“Putin’s thinking has evolved. He believes he has a favourable American president who doesn’t understand what he’s doing and is more focused on short-term victories. Putin believes it’s possible to make an agreement that no one will follow,” says a member of the US House of Representatives Intelligence Committee Jason Crow.
Ceasefire negotiations
Washington is negotiating with Russia and Ukraine to end the war, but a true ceasefire is still in sight. Kyiv has already agreed to halt hostilities in the Black Sea and not attack Russian energy facilities during a 30-day ceasefire. Moscow, in return, has only promised not to attack energy facilities and said it would implement agreements on the Black Sea only after Western sanctions are lifted.
Previously, Donald Trump threatened to impose large-scale sanctions against Russia, including banking sanctions and new tariffs, unless there is a ceasefire and a peace agreement with Ukraine.
Marco Rubio said after meeting with allies in Paris on April 18 that the United States could end its mediation efforts in Ukraine within days if it does not see clear signs of a peace deal. Trump confirmed his words the same day.
On the evening of April 27, Trump made it clear for the third time in a week that he was dissatisfied with Russiaʼs position. And Rubio had reiterated the day before that Washington might abandon attempts at a peaceful settlement if Moscow and Kyiv did not make progress. In that case, Russia could face increased sanctions, the US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz reminded us over the weekend.
- The US Vice President J.D. Vance said that there is a "very large gap" between Ukraine and Russia in terms of their vision for ending the war. Therefore, in the next 100 days, the Donald Trump administration will work to "try to bring these sides closer together".
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