Weapons, money, attention — everything now goes to Israel, which is at war with Iran. Ukraine suffers from this and to a lesser extent Russia. Hereʼs how the new conflict in the Middle East affects our war

Iran and Russia are strategic partners. This was recorded in the 2025 agreement.

But Iran began helping Russia in the war against Ukraine long before that. In October 2022, the Russians began attacking Ukrainian energy systems, and then long-range Iranian Shahed strike drones flew over Ukraine.

Since then, much evidence and internal documents of this purchase have emerged. Iran was actually “Ireland” or “Belarus”, selling “motorboats” to Russia, and the funds went through an intermediary company from the UAE. The Russians first bought ready-made drones from Iran, then acquired the technology, sent their specialists to train in Iran, and eventually localized the production of “Shahed” drones. The plant was built in the Alabuga special economic zone in Tatarstan.

Since the fall of 2022, the number of drones that Russia has launched over Ukraine has increased significantly — from several hundred per month to several hundred per day. According to GUR, the Russians produce about 2 700 long-range Geran drones (based on Shahed technology) every month and the same number of imitators that are supposed to exhaust Ukrainian air defense.

But the 2025 version of the Shaheds is significantly different from the ones purchased from Iran three years ago. They have new warheads, their own navigation systems, and electronic warfare means.

It is almost impossible to determine exactly how much Iran is still helping Russia in the production of Shahed.

At the end of 2022, Russian engineers prepared a document with plans for the production of these drones in Russia. By mid-2023, Iran was to supply Russia with the Shaheds in disassembled form. Then, the Russians planned to independently assemble the hulls, the filling of which would be received from Iran. Somewhere from the beginning of 2024, the plant in Alabuz was to independently manufacture drones from Russian-made components.

But an analysis of the downed Shaheds confirms that there are few Russian parts there — mostly Chinese and Western components. And although Israel is bombing Iranian military-industrial complex facilities, including Shahed production plants, this is unlikely to affect the pace of production of these drones in Russia.

So far, the only confirmed military assistance to Iran from Russia remains drones.

Although foreign media have repeatedly written that Tehran is allegedly close to transferring ballistic missiles to the Russian army. Iran does indeed have many ballistic missiles of various ranges, but they have not yet been used in Ukraine.

Now Russia can forget about Iranian ballistic missiles. First, for Israel, this is one of the main goals — the Israeli army already claims to have destroyed a third of Iranian launchers, and also regularly strikes missile depots and factories. Second, Iran itself is now using these missiles to strike Israel. And not singly, but en masse — sometimes several hundred at a time. For comparison: during a full-scale war, Russia launched a maximum of 20 ballistic missiles per attack. Experts estimated that Iran has about 3 thousand different ballistic missiles.

The war between Israel and Iran is affecting military supplies not only to Russia, but also to Ukraine.

The Ukrainian army has already felt it. In early June, President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that the United States had redirected 20 000 missiles against the "Shahed" вкщтуы instead of Ukraine to the Middle East. These missiles were agreed upon with the previous presidential administration, but the Pentagon decided to reinforce its own units with them, without any explanation. Within a few days, it became clear why — Israel launched a military operation.

Iran is launching not only ballistic missiles but also Shahed missiles in response, but they almost never reach Israel. Although Israeli air defense intercepts most targets, its capabilities are not unlimited.

According to NBC News, Israel has begun shooting down only 65% of the missiles, while a few days earlier it was shooting down 90%. So Israel will be forced to look for additional missiles for air defense — in the same markets where Ukraine is looking for them.

The war between Israel and Iran has an economic impact on the war in Ukraine.

Because any conflicts in the Middle East affect the main wealth of this region — the oil market. And this is a key source of income for Russia.

Since the beginning of June, Brent crude oil prices have risen from $62 to $77 per barrel. Russian Urals oil is sold cheaper, but is guided by the same market trends. In 2025, Russia has budgeted a price of $70 per barrel. Brent is a benchmark oil, light and low in sulfur. While Russian Urals oil is heavier and of low quality. It is more difficult for buyers to process it, which is why the price is lower.

Iran, like Russia, is heavily dependent on oil exports, which are also subject to sanctions. The Achilles heel of Iranʼs oil industry is the island of Kharq in the Persian Gulf. It is home to oil terminals, storage facilities, and refineries. Iran sells 90% of its oil to China, and all of it is exported from there. So far, the Israeli army has barely touched the Iranian oil industry — only what works for Iranʼs domestic market.

Iran also has its own lever of influence on the oil market — it can block or close the Strait of Hormuz. This is the place through which 25% of all world oil and a third of liquefied gas are transported. If Iran dares to take this step, it itself will not be able to export oil. But in the event of Israeli strikes on the same Kharq Island, this will be impossible anyway.

If the Israeli operation does lead to a change of power in Iran, it would be Russia’s second major political loss in the Middle East in the past six months, after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.

Such a development could cut off Russia’s ability to circumvent Western sanctions, complicate oil transit and gas supplies through Iran, and jeopardize joint multibillion-dollar projects in both the oil and nuclear sectors. Putin’s personal image, which has repeatedly offered itself as a mediator in negotiations with Iran, would also suffer.

But even Donald Trump has already advised him: “First, we need to fix the situation with Russia.”