Leaked Pentagon documents: the US outlined four “wild” scenarios for the course of the war in Ukraine

Author:
Anna Kholodnova
Date:

The United States is considering four "wild" scenarios in Russiaʼs war with Ukraine, including the death of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky.

This is reported by The New York Times with reference to the US intelligence data after the leak.

The document states that the war is likely to be protracted. It also describes how each "wild" scenario could potentially lead to an escalation in Ukraine, a negotiated end to the war, or no significant impact on the course of events.

The New York Times notes that such documents are a fairly typical product for American intelligence services. They are designed to help military officers, politicians, and lawmakers consider the outcomes of large-scale events and evaluate possible options.

The document is marked as RELIDO, which means that the decision to release information (for example, to foreign partners) is made by certain high-ranking officials. It is dated February 24 and marked ONE YEAR, indicating that the analysis was conducted one year after the beginning of the Russian invasion.

According to the US, the hypothetical "wild" scenarios are the death of Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, the removal of the leadership of the Russian Federation by the Russian Armed Forces, and Ukraineʼs attack on the Kremlin.

The Biden administration was particularly concerned about a possible strike by Ukraine on Moscow, as it could cause a sharp escalation on the part of Russia. The US predicted that Putin could respond with full-scale mobilization and resort to tactical nuclear weapons, or that a frightened Russian public could force him to negotiate a settlement of the war.

The document describes various possible scenarios. There is no estimate of their probability.