The United States is considering four "wild" scenarios in Russiaʼs war with Ukraine, including the death of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky.
This is reported by The New York Times with reference to the US intelligence data after the leak.
The document states that the war is likely to be protracted. It also describes how each "wild" scenario could potentially lead to an escalation in Ukraine, a negotiated end to the war, or no significant impact on the course of events.
The New York Times notes that such documents are a fairly typical product for American intelligence services. They are designed to help military officers, politicians, and lawmakers consider the outcomes of large-scale events and evaluate possible options.
The document is marked as RELIDO, which means that the decision to release information (for example, to foreign partners) is made by certain high-ranking officials. It is dated February 24 and marked ONE YEAR, indicating that the analysis was conducted one year after the beginning of the Russian invasion.
According to the US, the hypothetical "wild" scenarios are the death of Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, the removal of the leadership of the Russian Federation by the Russian Armed Forces, and Ukraineʼs attack on the Kremlin.
The Biden administration was particularly concerned about a possible strike by Ukraine on Moscow, as it could cause a sharp escalation on the part of Russia. The US predicted that Putin could respond with full-scale mobilization and resort to tactical nuclear weapons, or that a frightened Russian public could force him to negotiate a settlement of the war.
The document describes various possible scenarios. There is no estimate of their probability.
- On April 6, it became known that classified military documents related to the counteroffensive of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the war against Russia were published on social networks (Twitter and Telegram). The published documents seem to differ from the initial version — they overestimate American estimates of the losses of the Ukrainian army and underestimate the probable number of Russians killed. But the photos of schedules of arms deliveries, the number of troops and battalions, and other plans look authentic. The Pentagon is conducting its own investigation.
- On April 7, it became known that the second batch of secret documents of the American authorities was published on the network. They are talking not only about Ukraine, but also about the activities of the USA in the Indo-Pacific region, in the Middle East, actions to fight terrorism and rivalry with China.
- On April 9, Bellingcat reported that documents from the Pentagon began to appear on the Internet as early as January 2023 on some Discord servers where video game fans chatted.
- On April 10, the Pentagon confirmed that due to the leak of documents, "very sensitive secret" information became public.