The spring and early summer of 2023 will be decisive for the course of Russiaʼs war against Ukraine. There will be heavy fighting in Donbas. An attack on Kyiv is unlikely.
The representative of the Main Directorate of intelligence (MDI) of Ukraine Vadym Skibitskyi stated this in an interview with Delfi.
"Spring and early summer will be decisive in the war. If the big Russian offensive planned for this time fails, it will be the downfall of Russia and Putin," Skibitskyi noted.
Thus, according to him, "difficult and decisive battles" await Donetsk and Luhansk regions. At the same time, a new attack by the Russians on Kyiv through Belarus is unlikely, as are active hostilities in the south of Ukraine, where the Russians are more concerned about protecting the occupied Crimea.
"When spring and early summer are behind us, maybe we can start talking about the end of the war. We cannot look far yet, we must pass the first stage — spring and early summer. We see what this war is leading to: the Russian military leadership has changed, the first stage of mobilization has ended, and the Russian army is regrouping. Our assessment is simple: the main activity of the Russian army will take place in Donetsk and Luhansk directions," Vadym Skibitskyi informed.
- Earlier, Skibitskyi stated that the Russian occupiers will probably start a new offensive in Zaporizhzhia region, in the Kharkiv direction they will try to stop the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and will try to hold positions in Kherson, where they are building up their defenses.
- The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi stated that the Russians are training approximately 200 000 new soldiers, and that he has no doubt that they will try to go to Kyiv a second time. The Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov and the commander of the OC "South" also believe that Russia plans to launch another wave of offensive in February 2023.