The European Union is considering the possibility of separating Moldovaʼs European integration process from Ukraine ahead of the Moldovan parliamentary elections on September 28.
Politico reports this, citing three diplomats and one EU official.
Under a scenario being considered by EU officials, European countries would vote to open the first negotiating cluster for Moldova in early September, after a meeting of the EU Council. The move is expected to provide a major electoral boost to President Maja Sandu, whose Action and Solidarity party is campaigning on a pro-European platform and has faced Russian attempts to sway votes in favour of pro-Russian forces.
"We need to find a way to open the first cluster. This would be a signal to Russia. This would eliminate arguments in favour of the Russian narrative that there is no progress on the path to EU membership," said the head of the EU-Moldova Association Committee in the European Parliament Siegfried Muresan.
But, according to a Ukrainian diplomat, allowing Moldova to move forward while leaving Ukraine on hold could be viewed negatively in Kyiv. Ukraine and Moldovaʼs EU membership bids have been moving together since both received the initial green light from the European Council in 2023.
"There is a danger of sending the wrong signal to Ukrainians. At a time when future peace is being discussed in Alaska, we need to support the prospect of EU membership as much as possible," the Ukrainian diplomat said.
The problem is that Ukraine’s application is being blocked by Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has made opposing Ukraine’s EU accession a key element of his own re-election campaign next year. So while Moldova may get approval from all 27 member states to open a negotiating cluster at an informal meeting of the EU Council, Ukraine is unlikely to have unanimous support.
This has put enlargement countries, including the current EU presidency of Denmark, in a difficult position. If they cut Moldova’s ties with Ukraine, they risk not moving forward with either of them. A green light for Moldova by September 28 would send a powerful signal to pro-European voters in Moldova, but could anger Ukrainians.
According to the EU diplomat, several options are being considered to show Ukraine that its candidacy is moving forward, even if the negotiating cluster is not opened. Among them are granting Kyiv access to the Horizon Europe program or full inclusion in the Erasmus student exchange program.
Diplomats and officials also stressed that circumstances could change quickly, particularly in light of the meeting between Donald Trump and Putin in Alaska on August 15.
- Ukraine applied for membership in the European Union on February 28, 2022, four days after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion.
- In June 2022, Ukraine officially became a candidate for membership in the European Union, and a year later, Ukraine and the EU officially began membership negotiations.
- Ukraine and Moldova are to jointly open the first negotiating cluster for EU accession, European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos confirmed on May 1.
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