As of early May 2025, 47% of Ukrainians had rather positive expectations from signing a minerals agreement with the US.
This is stated in a sociological survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
22% say that the consequences will be rather negative, and another 19% answered that the signing of this agreement will not affect Ukraine in any way. The remaining 12% could not decide on an answer. That is, the balance of positive-negative expectations is +25% — positive expectations prevail).
By region, there are slightly fewer positive expectations regarding the agreement in the east and west. Although in both cases, the share of those with negative expectations does not exceed a quarter, and the balance of positive-negative expectations is positive (taking into account the rather small sample in each region).
This survey also asked about trust in individual Ukrainian public figures. The results show that in the case of all public figures, no more than a third of those who trust them believe that this agreement will have mostly negative consequences for Ukraine. At the same time, in almost all cases, the share of those who expect mostly positive consequences outweighs the share of those who expect mostly negative consequences — that is, the balance of assessments is positive.
The only exception is those who trust an MP and former leader of the now banned Opposition Platform — For Life (OPZZh) party Yuriy Boyko. Among them, the fewest have positive expectations and slightly more have negative expectations from the mineral agreement.
There is also somewhat less optimism among those who trust the former advisor to the head of the Presidentʼs Office Oleksiy Arestovych, although in his case the balance of expectations is still positive.) However, these results are less reliable due to the small number of their supporters in the sample.
In the case of all other public figures, among those who trust them, about half or more believe that signing the agreement will have more positive consequences for Ukraine.
The results of the KIIS survey show that Ukrainians currently have mostly positive expectations from the mineral agreement with the US, and a minority has negative expectations. Moreover, among those who trust well-known public figures, in particular leaders of the political opposition, positive expectations from the agreement also prevail.
How the research was conducted
On May 2, 2025, KIIS began its own survey, planned in advance (using the method of telephone interviews with a nationwide sample of adult citizens living in the unoccupied territories of Ukraine), to which at the last moment a question was added about the perception of the consequences of this agreement.
The field phase of the survey is scheduled to last until mid-May 2025, but as of May 6, 561 interviews had been conducted. KIIS notes that this number is sufficient to understand the preliminary results (taking into account the margin of error, which is 5.4% at a confidence level of 95% and a design effect of 1.3).
Subsoil Agreement
On May 1, Ukraine and the United States signed an agreement on subsoil — that is, on the creation of the US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, which will attract global investments to our country.
The fund is a key instrument of cooperation between the United States and Ukraine for the countryʼs post-war reconstruction and its integration into the global economy. More information about the agreement is available here and here.
The signing of the agreement was preceded by months of political battles between Ukraine and the U.S. Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko noted that in the end, a version of the agreement was formed that provides for mutually beneficial conditions for both countries.
On May 6, the Verkhovna Rada Committee on International Policy recommended ratifying the minerals agreement. However, on May 7, the Committee voted down the decision — a text was added to the preamble of the resolution, stating that the deputies had not seen other agreements concluded along with the general minerals agreement.
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