The critical phase of the war will come in the next two months, said the commander of the Ground Forces Oleksandr Pavlyuk in an interview with The Economist. According to him, Russia understands that weapons from the USA have only just begun to arrive at the front, and is throwing all its forces to knock out Ukrainian units from their occupied positions.
"Russia knows that if we get enough weapons within a month or two, the situation can turn against them," says Pavlyuk.
Pavlyuk believes that Russian attacks will continue to focus on the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. But intelligence suggests that Russian troops will soon intensify their offensive, attacking the northeastern regions of Kharkiv region and Sumy region.
"Russia checks the stability of our defense lines before choosing the most appropriate direction for the offensive," Pavlyuk explained.
However, according to Pavlyuk, the Russians are not abandoning their intentions to capture Kyiv after a failed offensive at the beginning of a full-scale invasion. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are forming ten new brigades in preparation for the Russian offensive, and part of the forces will be deployed to defend Kyiv.
"The defense of Kyiv remains one of our main concerns, no matter how difficult things are in the east. This is the heart of Ukraine, and we know what a key role the cityʼs defense will play in the future," said Pavlyuk.
At the same time, Pavlyuk emphasized that, in addition to artillery and armored vehicles, the Ukrainian army also needs strengthening of air defense.
The expected delivery of F-16 fighter jets at the beginning of the summer will provide a significant "psychological boost" and also protect against attacks by Russian bombers. Currently, Russian aircraft remain at a distance that is beyond the reach of Ukrainian air defense. Pavlyuk says that because of this, the Russians drop about 130 guided aerial bombs per day on the forward positions of the Ukrainian military.
- On May 3, President Volodymyr Zelensky informed that Ukraine is facing a new stage of war with Russia. He noted that the occupier is preparing for attempts to expand offensive actions.
- Already on May 10, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that Russian troops had launched a new wave of offensives in the Kharkiv region. Analytical project DeepState, which recently cooperates with the Ministry of Defense, wrote that the enemy is trying to enter and gain a foothold along the border, in particular, in the villages of Strilecha, Krasne, Pylna and Borysivka. There are also attempts to enter the settlements of Hatyshche and Pletenivka.
- The main forces of the enemy at the moment are infantry supported by artillery and aviation. Armored vehicles are available in small quantities.