According to the estimates of the Energy Research Center, in July and August, you can expect severe restrictions for consumers after the latest attacks on energy.
The director of the center Oleksandr Kharchenko says that by the heating season, Ukraine should return 2 GW of capacity, of which "at best, 300-500 MW of generation before the summer peak of consumption (July-August)."
The total loss of generating capacity due to missile attacks in Ukraine at the end of March amounted to 23%, and taking into account the attacks in April, it may reach 35-40%.
The center says that in order to cover 98% of daily consumption before the heating season, it is necessary not only to import electricity to the maximum, but also to restore 2 gigawatts of thermal generation capacity.
"Unfortunately, we can already state that approximately 1.5 GW will return to us no earlier than in one and a half to two years," Oleksandr Kharchenko notes.
As of March 31, 2024, the energy system of Ukraine could provide:
- 75% of the projected daily maximum consumption during the 2024/25 heating season — excluding electricity imports;
- 87% of the projected daily maximum consumption during the 2024/25 heating season — subject to maximum imports.
"These are the numbers we had before the last attack on April 11. That is, in fact, you can cut 10-12% from each of these indicators," Kharchenko adds.
To restore the capacities of the unified energy system, Ukraine needs approximately $5 billion for the next three to five years.
Attack on the Ukrainian energy industry
During the massive shelling of Ukraine on the night of April 11, the Russians completely destroyed the Trypilska TPP in the city of Ukrainka, Kyiv region. PJSC "Centrenergo" lost 100% of generation. It includes:
- The Zmiivska TPP in the Kharkiv region (destroyed by the Russians);
- The Trypilska TPP in the Kyiv region (destroyed by the Russians);
- The Vuhlehirsk TPP in the Donetsk region (captured by the Russians).
On March 22, the Russian occupiers launched the largest combined attack on the Ukrainian energy system since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. There was a blackout in Kharkiv. Among other things, the occupiers hit the Dnipro HPP, but there is no threat of a dam breach. Both stations that are part of the Dnipro HPP (HPP-1 and HPP-2) stopped working, while HPP-2 suffered critical damage.
On the night of March 29, Russia launched a large-scale missile strike against the facilities of the fuel and energy sector of Ukraine. Then it damaged the energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Cherkasy and Chernivtsi regions. The targets of the occupiers were also the Kaniv and Dniester hydropower plants located in the Cherkasy and Chernivtsi regions.