Ukraine and Moldova can officially begin negotiations on EU accession in June — the first cluster is next
Ukraine and Moldova have met all the conditions for the first stage of accession, but it has been held up for over a year by Hungaryʼs veto. After the parliamentary elections in April, a new Prime Minister Peter Magyar came to power, and his party "Tisza" received a constitutional majority in parliament.
He has already said that he is ready to support the movement of Ukraine and Moldova, which Brussels is promoting to the EU together, in the so-called package. However, for this, Ukraine needs to resolve the issue of the rights of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia.
Consultations between Kyiv and Budapest on this issue have already begun.
The European Union always opens the "Fundamentals" cluster first. Both Ukraine and Moldova are ready to open all six clusters. Brussels is still hesitating: to open only one cluster, several or all at once. And that is why they are not calling an official date for the start of negotiations.
Most likely, this will happen at the next meeting of the European Council on June 18-19, where the new Prime Minister of Hungary Peter Magyar will participate for the first time.
Chisinau is ahead of Kyiv in the pace of reforms, but cannot move towards the EU on its own due to the threat from Russia
Every year, the European Commission analyzes how candidate countries have progressed in reforms and to what extent their laws already meet EU standards.
In 2025, Ukraine joined the group of leading countries aspiring to join the EU, along with Montenegro, Albania and Moldova. But Chisinauʼs progress in reforms exceeded Ukraineʼs by more than five times.
Moldova has objective advantages. First, its economy is small, which means that the EU does not need to radically revise its budget. The Moldovan agricultural sector does not pose a direct threat to European farmers (such as France or Poland), while integrating the Ukrainian agricultural giant without harming the EU internal market is a difficult task that is slowing down negotiations.
Second, none of the 27 EU countries has spoken out against Moldova. Why has Chisinau become a hostage to Hungarian ultimatums and is forced to synchronize its every move with Kyiv?
Because it cannot afford to behave differently. Moldovaʼs critical problem is weak state institutions that fail to keep up with political promises, and Russiaʼs constant attempts to destabilize the situation.
Military parade in Tiraspol on the occasion of the 35th anniversary of the proclamation of the so-called Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, September 2, 2025.
Getty Images / «Babel'»
A separate weak point for Moldova is Transnistria, where Russian troops are stationed. In March of this year, the Moldovan government presented a plan for the reintegration of the region — the first such document in decades. But the plan does not change the reality: Russia is physically present on 12% of Moldovan territory, and this threatens the countryʼs sovereignty.
Volodymyr Zelensky and Moldovan Prime Minister Alexandru Munteanu have publicly warned that Russia is trying to drag Transnistrians into a war against Ukraine. To this end, the Kremlin has simplified the issuance of Russian passports in the region to make it easier for them to mobilize into the Russian army. This threat applies to both countries.
This was also emphasized by Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Taras Kachka in his comment to Babel:
"Ukraine and Moldova are part of the common Eastern European security space and objects of political aggression from Russia. If the EU divides our tracks, it will undermine its own geopolitical reliability. This will be a clear signal: Brussels allows external pressure and internal intrigues to dictate the enlargement policy. Such a step may become a source of new risks. After all, previous experience has shown that an attempt to create another ʼgray zoneʼ instead of a clear geopolitical solution will not bring balance. It will only provoke a new wave of aggression."
Prime Minister of Moldova Alexandru Munteanu and President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, February 10, 2026.
There are no plans to separate Moldova and Ukraine yet, but Friedrich Merz is proposing a special status for Ukraine, and it will change the rules of the game
Politicians are not currently planning to separate Ukraine and Moldova. The European Commission is pleased that both countries are ready to open all negotiation clusters.
Kachka says that countries can move at different paces in certain areas, and that’s okay. Reforms of the economy, law, or institutions don’t always proceed at the same speed. But they should open clusters or finally agree on the terms of accession simultaneously.
Analyst Denis Chenusha confirms in a report by the Geopolitical and Security Studies Center (GSSC): the Moldovan government independently chose to move towards the EU together with Ukraine, without pressure from Kyiv or Brussels.
In practice, decoupling could look different. In the most likely scenario, the countries could simply move at different paces: Moldova closing more clusters earlier while maintaining symbolic unity with Kyiv. A less likely option is a separate status for Ukraine.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz proposed on May 21 that Ukraine be granted associate membership in the EU as an interim step before accession. Ukrainian officials would then be able to participate in EU summits and meetings of the Council of Ministers — the EU’s main legislative and political body — but without the right to vote.
The chancellor also suggested that EU countries apply the mutual assistance clause to Ukraine to create additional security guarantees. Merz said that this could help peace talks to end the war. The European Commission called for the idea to be discussed at the European Council level.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a meeting before the informal meeting of the European Council in Ayia Napa, April 23, 2026.
Getty Images / «Babel'»
Friedrich Merz proposes to provide the Western Balkans and Moldova with separate, rather than identical, plans for accelerated integration into the European Union, but this will definitely mean that the paths of Chisinau and Kyiv will diverge. In Moldova itself, the separation is being discussed diplomatically.
The Speaker of the Parliament of Moldova Igor Grosu responded to a question from Babel, transmitted by colleagues from the Moldovan publication Agora, that the countries should start together, and then they can move forward depending on the capabilities of each:
"I believe that both Moldova and Ukraine deserve the official opening of negotiations now, in June. And in the future, each country should move at the speed it can provide. This would meet the interests of both Moldova and Ukraine."
Ukraine initiated a new format of cooperation between parliaments of EU candidate countries. The first meeting took place in Copenhagen on May 5, 2026.
X (Twitter) / «Бабель»
The head of the parliamentary committee on European integration Marcel Spatari says that Chisinau has already asked EU countries to open negotiations for both countries during the Cyprus presidency of the EU Council. Moldova has a specific deadline.
“Our national plan is adapted to the political goal of signing the accession treaty in 2028. We plan to fully complete the negotiations by the end of 2027. This schedule is ambitious, but realistic. And it is also realistic for Ukraine,” Spatari explains.
This publication was produced as part of the Seizing Synergies project, implemented by n-ost and supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). The content of this publication is the sole responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of BMZ.