Babel spoke with John Bolton, Trumpʼs former national security adviser. He talks about how Ukraine should deal with the US president

After Trumpʼs victory, some experts say that no matter what Zelensky does, Trump will not forgive him for the situation involving Bidenʼs son, which took place during the first Trump administration. Is this true? Has Trump held a grudge since then?

Well, Trump believes that international relations are essentially the equivalent of the personal relations that he has with other foreign heads of state. That is, he believes that he and Vladimir Putin are friends. I don’t think Putin feels the same way about him, but Trump thinks so. And it is clear that after the famous phone call in the summer of 2019, Trump has had a bad relationship with Zelensky, despite the fact that Zelensky has made a lot of efforts, especially in recent months, to improve them. But I think that personal animosity is affecting these ceasefire talks. I think Trump looks to Zelensky as the problem causer and looks to Putin as the person whoʼs really sincere about a ceasefire. Thatʼs the exact opposite of reality. But thatʼs what Trump thinks.

So about Putin. In your book you wrote that Trump likes some dictators. You also mentioned his opinion that Ukraine was interfering with US-Russia relations. What would have to happen for Trump to finally understand who Putin really is?

Well, itʼs possible that Putin can overplay his hand. Trump has already made a number of concessions to the Russians in his second term. But it was clear at one point that Trump was somewhat frustrated with Putin because the ceasefire talks were not moving ahead. Now, perhaps heʼs moved past that. He said in recent days, as has Secretary of State Marco Rubio, that theyʼre prepared to walk away from the talks. Rubio has canceled his trip to London to meet with other foreign ministers. But on the other hand, Steve Witkoff is still going to Moscow to meet Putin for a fourth time, which I think is an indication of where Trump thinks heʼs going to get the answers he wants to hear.

What should Ukraine do to win Trumpʼs favour? Many people say that Putin chose the right tactic, which is just flattery and praise. Does that really work? Does Trump actually have some geopolitical interest in Russia, meaning that no matter what Ukraine does, we have no chance?

Well, I donʼt think he knows exactly what interest he has in Russia, except maybe some ideas for after he gets out of the White House. One opportunity for Ukraine may come on Saturday, at the Pope’s funeral in Rome. Trump has announced he is going. Zelenskyʼs announced he will attend. Perhaps they might have a chance to talk then. I think Zelensky has done the right thing inviting Trump to come to Ukraine to see what damage, what destruction the war has caused. Trump doesnʼt want to do that because he knows what he would see and he doesnʼt want to have to acknowledge it. I think Zelensky is in a difficult position of having to try and try to, to get Trumpʼs attention.

What else should Zelensky do to get this favour to make these relations better?

I think he would do well to have his advisors continue to talk to Marco Rubio, to the National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, to the Defense Secretary Hegseth for as long as heʼs still Defense secretary. I think J.D. Vance, the vice President, is a hopeless case, but I think Ukrainians should talk to their other American counterparts. The Ukrainian Embassy in Washington and officials from Kyiv should talk to members of Congress, particularly Republicans, who, many of whom, I would say the majority of whom are still very supportive, very sympathetic to Ukraine, to see if there are things they can do on their part to help bring Trump around. It just is going to require, I think, an all out effort and hopefully we may not know what particular conversation or what particular piece of information might change Trumpʼs point of view.

How do you assess Trumpʼs current peace plan? He proposes to give up Crimea and temporarily occupied territories in favour of Russia, to abandon NATO membership, and not receive security guarantees. Is this a good proposal?

No, itʼs a very bad proposal. Even if Russia agrees to a ceasefire on very favourable terms, as in Trump’s peace plan, it does not guarantee that the Kremlin will never try to dominate Ukraine. A simple ceasefire means that Russia will invade a third time at some point. Putin simply needs time to regroup and rebuild his army. But his main goal is clear: to recreate the Russian empire. A ceasefire will not hinder that goal. It may slow it down, but Putin, his advisers, and most of the Russian people will not simply abandon it. I see no organized resistance inside Russia to oppose these military intentions.

In your opinion, is there anyone in the Trump administration who understands this and can convincingly convey it to him?

There are people in the administration who can sympathize, and we have to be careful not to bring them to Trumpʼs attention right now. But look at the comments of Rubio when he was a senator, of Waltz when he was a member of the House of Representatives. I think they still understand that the United States needs stability in Central Europe to counter the threats of the China-Russia axis.

But can these people change the views of the US president?

Trump is guided by what he thinks is best for Donald Trump. And he thinks that what is best for Donald Trump right now is to resume dialogue with his good friend Vladimir Putin. If he sees that it will lower his approval ratings in the United States, or if Putin makes a mistake or oversteps the mark, goes too far, asks Trump for more than he should, all of that could backfire on the Russian president. Donʼt hold back, because when Putin makes a mistake, you want to take advantage of it.

And how exactly is Putin supposed to make a mistake?

Putin is demanding the withdrawal of NATO troops from some NATO member countries so that “they are less of a threat to Russia”. Even that may be too much for Trump, and Putin may misunderstand how much Trump is willing to give.

If Trump fails to reach a peace deal, how likely is it that he will blame Ukraine?

He will definitely do it. When you have problems with friends or colleagues, you don’t want to believe that your friend is the cause of the trouble. So it’s a natural reaction for Trump to blame everything on Zelensky, even though this is as far from the truth as possible.

From the outside, Trumpʼs domestic policy seems both aggressive and effective, at least, I think, for his constituency. Others say that the system of checks and balances has broken down. Is that true? Has the system failed the crash test?

No, I donʼt think the system has failed. I mean, weʼre still within the first hundred days of the presidency. The Republicans have majorities in both the House and the Senate. The Democrats have just gone brain dead. As far as I can tell, theyʼre still in disbelief they lost the election. But I think as a number of Trumpʼs policies come into contact with reality, they will have political consequences, and many of them will be negative. I think that the tariff policy is the best example that weʼve now gone to war with, not just bad actors in the international trading system like China. Weʼve now gone to war with our friends and allies all over the world.

Is something changing within the Republican Party? Is the attitude towards Trump, his support, changing?

Many Republicans in Congress are concerned about the mess in the administration, the problems in the Department of Defense. Of course, the tariffs are a big concern for them. But people voted for Trump in November, just six months ago. And they donʼt want to admit that they made a mistake, theyʼre willing to give Trump a chance. That doesnʼt mean theyʼre willing to give him a chance forever. I mean, this grace period is ending.

Do you believe in the power of a united Europe? Is it capable of ensuring that Ukraine does not lose the war without the US?

If Europe can fully provide for Ukraine, it means that Ukraine may not negotiate a ceasefire under pressure. In fact, I am not a supporter of these negotiations. If there is a ceasefire, the current front line will de facto become the new border. And talk about peacekeepers and all that only increases the risk that the border will pass where the front line now passes. The Russians will definitely try to create a new border, and this must be avoided.

It is clear that Europe is neither willing nor ready to confront Russia without the US. Is there a strong leader in Europe today who can build a relationship with Trump?

No, I donʼt think so. Itʼs hard to think of anyone who had such a good relationship with Trump during his first term as former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Thereʼs no one like him in Europe. Even Boris Johnson, who probably has a better relationship with Trump than any other international leader. So without that kind of leader, itʼs harder for the European Union to work with Trump.

You also mentioned the possibility that Trump could cut off the assistance. How likely is it to happen? And what can Ukraine do not to have, like to avoid this?

The most Trump wants right now is to put this war behind him and get the Nobel Peace Prize. If he can’t do that, I’m afraid he’ll say something like “I tried to get them to cease fire, but they wouldn’t. So I’m cutting off aid to Ukraine and imposing more sanctions on Russia.” I think the likelihood of the US cutting off military aid to Ukraine is greater than the US imposing new sanctions on Russia. A lot will depend on what Putin tells Witkoff in Moscow later this week.

You once said that Witkoff doesnʼt know Ukraine, doesnʼt understand the history of the conflict, and Putin is manipulating him. So the situation for Ukraine is not very optimistic, right?

Well, I think being realistic about it, thereʼs little to be optimistic about. I would like to have better proposals. But it is important to continue diplomacy. Ukraine has many supporters in the United States and in Congress, and they should know that Ukraine is not bowing to Trumpʼs pressure, but is determined to restore its sovereignty and territorial integrity. As long as people know this, I think the support in Congress will remain strong.

So, is there still any hope for us?

Yeah, I mean, I think there is. Look, Trump, 45 months is a long time to go, but itʼs not forever. And he’s not just a new president, he’s also a lame duck president. That will become more apparent every day. And don’t underestimate the support Ukraine still has in the Republican Party—it’s smaller than it should be, but it’s still strong. As Trump’s lame duck status becomes more apparent, Congress’s ability to pressure Trump will increase.