Belarus is unlikely to be involved in the war in Ukraine on the side of the Russian Federation. Even so, Russia hopes to use Belarusian military facilities and infrastructure to train the newly mobilized.
This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War as of the morning of September 30.
It is likely that Russia will use Belarusian military facilities and infrastructure to house and potentially train newly mobilized forces, but it is highly unlikely that this is a primary indicator of imminent Belarusian interference in Ukraineʼs affairs on Russiaʼs behalf.
The deputy chief of the Main Operations Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksiy Hromov stated that there are no signs that Russian forces are forming a strike group to attack northern Ukraine, so Russian forces are unlikely to use Belarus as a launch pad for ground attacks on Ukraine.
"These reports most likely indicate that Russian President Putin continues to use his relationship with Belarusian President Lukashenko to use Belarusian land to develop Russian military capabilities," the analysts added.
- On September 29, Ukrainian military intelligence reported that Belarus was preparing to receive 20 000 mobilized troops from Russia, and the General Staff added that Belarusian military airfields and railways were being prepared to receive troops.
- After that, one of the leaders of the Belarusian opposition, Pavlo Latushko, said that the self-proclaimed president Lukashenko is preparing to go to war against Ukraine, and Belarus allegedly undertook to provide an additional 100 000 mobilized soldiers. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov reacted to this statement, who noted that there is always a danger of an attack from Belarus, but it should not be overestimated.