The European Commission is for the first time officially incorporating into its financial planning a scenario under which Russiaʼs full-scale war against Ukraine could end by the end of 2026.
This is stated in an internal letter from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, which was obtained by Euronews journalists.
In the document, von der Leyen describes Ukraineʼs needs for the coming years and possible support mechanisms.
According to estimates by the IMF and the Ukrainian authorities, in 2026-2027 Kyiv will need €83.4 billion to maintain the army and €55.2 billion to stabilize the economy and cover the budget deficit. These are the figures that the European Commission is taking as a basis when modeling future assistance.
Although a ceasefire remains elusive, the EU is already preparing for Ukraineʼs transition to a post-war phase, which will require significant financial investments to rebuild and support the state.
In the document, von der Leyen described three possible financing scenarios:
- €90 billion in grants from member states — non-repayable, but with a burden on national budgets;
- €90 billion of common EU debt, which requires unanimity among member states. Hungary has already spoken out against it;
- €140 billion in the form of a “reparations loan” secured by the proceeds of frozen Russian assets. Ukraine will begin repayment only after Russia agrees to compensate for war damages.
The first two options increase fiscal pressure on EU budgets, while the third avoids additional costs — which is why it is seen as the most politically acceptable.
What is a "reparation loan"?
The possibility of providing Ukraine with a €140 billion loan using frozen Russian assets has been discussed since early October. At that time, EU leaders were unable to agree on the loan — Belgium opposed it, and France and Luxembourg were concerned about the legal consequences.
The European Commission has proposed providing Ukraine with a loan using Russian state assets held in Euroclear, a Belgian financial institution. Under the plan, if Russia refuses to pay reparations to Ukraine after the war, it will lose rights to these assets.
Belgium opposed the plan out of concern that Russia would sue it if it went ahead. Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Wever asked the other 26 EU countries to guarantee coverage of legal and financial risks.
Politico reported on October 21 that EU ambassadors had tentatively agreed on a plan to provide a “reparations loan” for Ukraine. However, at a meeting on October 23, EU leaders did not agree to allocate the loan and postponed the issue until December.
Euronews wrote on November 8 that negotiations between the European Commission and Belgian authorities on using frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine have not yet yielded any results.
Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, Russia has prepared a response to the Westʼs possible "reparations loan" to Ukraine — it will nationalize foreign assets.
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