The majority of Ukrainians surveyed — 77% — have a positive attitude towards a 30-day ceasefire. The idea has high support in all regions — over 64% everywhere. However, Ukrainians do not believe that this can be the beginning of peace.
This is evidenced by the results of a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), which was conducted from March 12 to 22. That is, after the negotiations on March 11 between the US and Ukrainian delegations, where the Ukrainian side agreed to a 30-day ceasefire on the condition that the Russian Federation also accepts the proposal.
By March 18, 2025 — the day of Trump’s phone call with Putin — Ukrainians were asked how they perceived the idea of a 30-day temporary ceasefire. The choice was between three positive and three negative interpretations for Ukraine.
The majority — 77% — had a positive attitude towards this proposal. The most popular answer (47%) was a way to show that Russia does not want peace or is violating agreements. Another 12% believed that this was an attempt to unblock military aid, 18% saw it as a step towards ending the war on terms acceptable to Ukraine. Overall, the reaction was positive, but most respondents did not believe that this could truly be the beginning of peace.
17% of respondents chose a negative interpretation: 8% consider it a mistake that will weaken Ukraine, 7% — a sign of the authoritiesʼ desperation due to the situation on the front, and 2% considered it a step towards capitulation. In all regions, the majority (from 72% in the east to 85% in the west) supported the idea of a temporary ceasefire.
Ukrainiansʼ reaction to Russiaʼs demands
Between March 19 and 21, after Trumpʼs conversation with Putin, when Russia stated that for a ceasefire, Ukraine must stop mobilization, the supply of Western weapons, and the receipt of intelligence, Ukrainians were asked whether these conditions were acceptable to them.
Among the respondents surveyed, 79% consider them categorically unacceptable. 16% are ready to accept, of which 14% would find it a difficult decision. In all regions, the majority of people rejected these demands (80-81% in the west, center and south, 64% in the east).
To understand whether Ukrainians are ready to support a ceasefire, respondents were offered several options for security guarantees. If the ceasefire is without any guarantees, 62% would categorically not support it, and 32% would generally agree.
If there are certain security guarantees, more than half of Ukrainians (albeit reluctantly) would support a ceasefire. At the same time, the difference between the different guarantee options was insignificant:
- If Western peacekeepers are deployed, 60% will support it, 34% will oppose it.
- If Ukraineʼs membership in NATO becomes a guarantee, 58% will support it, 32% will be against it.
- If Ukraine receives more air defense, aircraft, and other military support, 56% would support it, 35% would oppose it.
What to do if the US stops supporting
In early March 2025, the US temporarily suspended military aid to Ukraine, but then resumed it. People were asked how Ukraine should act if the US permanently stopped supporting it.
Among Ukrainians surveyed, 82% believe that the country should continue the fight even with limited support (for example, only from Europe). Only 8% are inclined to surrender. In all regions, the majority supports continued resistance: from 78% in the east to 83% in the west.
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