American intelligence believes that Russia will "respond with greater force" against the United States and its coalition partners if they agree to give Ukraine permission to strike deep into the Russian Federation with Western weapons.
The New York Times (NYT) writes about it with reference to sources.
Intelligence analysts consider the authorization of strikes a "potential risk with uncertain benefits." Russiaʼs possible responses include increased arson and sabotage at facilities in Europe, potentially deadly attacks on American and European military bases.
At the same time, American officials consider the sabotage option to be a more likely answer, since it is GRU that is responsible for most of the acts of sabotage in Europe that have taken place so far.
Separately, in the intelligence assessment, it is noted that such permission is unlikely to greatly affect the course of the war. Moreover, after the first strikes, they say, the Russians will move ammunition depots, command posts, combat helicopters and other vital battlefield facilities beyond the range of the missiles.
Ban on attacks of Ukraine deep into Russia with Western weapons
Ukraine has long been asking its allies to allow their weapons to be used for long-range strikes deep into Russia. For such purposes, Ukraineʼs arsenal includes, in particular, American surface-to-surface ATACMS long-range missiles, British Storm Shadow long-range missiles, and their French counterpart Scalp.
However, none of these countries gave Ukraine permission to use its weapons for attacks deep into the Russian Federation. The US fears a possible escalation against the background of this decision. They also believe that lifting restrictions on long-range strikes will have no strategic significance in the war, because Russia has moved its most important targets, including aircraft, away from the border and made them inaccessible for strikes. And Great Britain cannot allow such strikes to Ukraine due to resistance from the USA.