US Intelligence has published an annual threat assessment from the US intelligence community. It is, in particular, about the Russian-Ukrainian war.
During the full-scale war, the Russian army lost 300 000 soldiers killed and wounded. These are the approximate losses calculated by American intelligence. At the same time, they are larger than any other since World War II.
The "dead end" in the war contributes to Russiaʼs strategic military advantages, thanks to which its momentum increases. The Russian defense industry is significantly increasing the production of an arsenal of long-range strike weapons, artillery ammunition and other means that will allow it to wage a long-term, high-intensity war. The Kremlin also benefits from uncertainty about the future of Western military aid to Ukraine.
However, the lack of quick and significant victories on the battlefield, combined with Ukrainian strikes on Russia, have raised concerns among US intelligence that Putin may use nuclear weapons. Russia continues to modernize its nuclear weapons potential.
China and Russia
China has more than tripled its exports of potentially military goods to Russia since the beginning of Russiaʼs full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Moscow uses many of these goods to manufacture weapons. In total, trade between Russia and China will reach more than $220 billion in 2023, which is a record. The Russian Federation received a large market for the sale of energy resources and other goods, protection from Western economic sanctions and a partner for confronting the USA.
Russia will continue to use all sources of national power to advance its interests and seek to undermine the United States and its allies, but it still faces problems such as disconnection from Western markets and loss of human capital.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia, China has never once supported Ukraine. Beijing supported the Russian Federation and condemned the sanctions against it imposed by the West due to its armed aggression.
NATO and Russia
American intelligence is convinced that Russia "almost certainly does not want a direct military conflict with US and NATO forces", so it will continue to act asymmetrically in order not to cross the line of potential armed confrontation.
Moscow continues to develop long-range nuclear missiles and underwater delivery systems designed to penetrate or bypass US missile defenses. The Kremlin believes that non-strategic systems capable of delivering nuclear or conventional warheads provide options for deterring adversaries and countering NATO.