Bloomberg sources said that internal assessments of the situation at the front are becoming increasingly gloomy, in particular after the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Avdiyivka. There are fears that the Ukrainian defense may not last until the summer.
The pessimism of Ukraine and its allies has been growing for several weeks as the Russians have partially seized the initiative on the battlefield, US military aid is delayed and artillery shells are limited.
Another source told Bloomberg that depending on the results of the current campaign, Russia will decide whether to continue a slow advance or build up forces and try to break through the defense line in the summer.
Another source noted that, according to Ukrainian intelligence, Putin has not given up on the goal of occupying large cities such as Kyiv or Odesa. And if Russia captured the latter, it would be able to block the key export routes of Ukraineʼs grain through the Black Sea and establish land access to Transnistria.
Earlier, the head of the NATO military committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, said that despite the lack of shells in Ukraine, Russia would need much more troops, heavy tanks and armored vehicles to launch an offensive. However, so far Russia has not been able to increase the production of such tanks and armored vehicles. Bauer also added that Russiaʼs losses during the assault on Avdiyivka are disproportionate to Ukrainian losses, meaning that the Russian army needs a lot of soldiers for the success of the offensive.
- A few days ago, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia plans to launch an offensive at the end of May — at the beginning of summer. At the same time, Ukraine has a clear plan for a new counteroffensive.