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Russia plans to replace Shaheds with its own drones and double the missiles production. What will come out of this — says the deputy head of Ukrainian intelligence (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky. A brief retelling of his interview

Author:
Kateryna Kobernyk
Date:
Russia plans to replace Shaheds with its own drones and double the missiles production. What will come out of this — says the deputy head of Ukrainian intelligence (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky. A brief retelling of his interview

Deputy head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine, Vadym Skibitsky.

gur.gov.ua / «Бабель»

Over the last three months, Russia was unable to destroy the Ukrainian energy industry and leave the country without electricity and heat. The intervals between mass shelling have become longer, and the threat of an offensive from Belarus, which has been talked about for the past year, isnʼt significant now. The military, including the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine (GUR), believe that the Russians are changing tactics and adapting to new conditions. What does this mean — Vadym Skibitskyi, the deputy head of the GUR, told in an interview with RBC outlet. Below are the main points of this conversation.

The Russians want to double the production of missiles. As of the end of last year, they could produce 20-30 Kalibr and Kh-101 cruise missiles per month. The situation with Iskander missiles is much worse. If all countries comply with the sanctions, Russia will not be able to reach larger volumes. In general, the Russians now have 10-15 percent of the high-precision missiles they had at the beginning of the full-scale war.

The enemy has changed the priorities of the attacks. If earlier the Russians were targeting energy infrastructure, now it will be military facilities, places of concentration of troops, and the logistics system. Specifically, oil refining bases, enterprises of the defense-industrial complex, hydrotechnical structures, bridges across the Dnipro River, airfields and airports.

The massive Russian offensive is just Russian propaganda. Russia doesnʼt have enough resources for it, and its goal remains the same — reaching the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Russia isnʼt capable of conducting a major strategic offensive in two or three directions.

In the conflict between Yevgeny Prigozhin and the General Staff of the Russian Federation, the General Staff will most likely win. Prigozhin has problems with recruiting personnel and ammunition. He promised to take Bakhmut by March and failed. The Wagnerites are losing their main forces, and Prigozhin frankly admits that he is the underdog now.

Russia will be able to wage war for two more years — 2023 and 2024. These are the estimates of the military intelligence of Lithuania and the Ukrainian GUR. If the sanctions are strengthened, this term will be shortened.

About 200 Iranian Shahed drones are remaining in Russia. They have already used eight hundred of them. Now the Russians will try to establish their own production of such drones. Ukrainian intelligence already knows where they plan to do it and how. Russia also plans to buy 122 mm and 152 mm ammunition from Iran, as well as small arms ammunition. They would also like to buy ballistic missiles, but Iran hasnʼt yet agreed to this.

The probability of an attack from Belarus is low. There are 4,200 Russian servicemen on rotation there. After preparation, they will be transferred to the east and south-east of Ukraine. But missile strikes from Belarus are possible — the Iskander division remains there.

Translated from Ukrainian by Anton Semyzhenko.

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