Defense News writes about how Ukrainian defenders are adapting to the use of Western weapons. The mobilization announced by Putin could give Russia the opportunity to stabilize its defense lines in 2023, so it is crucial for Ukraine to use this moment to train and equip its forces. In this Kyiv is helped by the West, for which the challenge remains to provide Ukraine with sufficient support, which, on the other hand, will not be regarded by Russia as crossing "red lines". In particular, instead of providing long-range weapons, the US impression focused on finding opportunities to adapt anti-radar missiles to be launched from the aircraft of the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Such missiles, in particular HARM, make it possible to find and attack enemy air defense systems, thus freeing up the sky for Ukrainian aviation. As for HIMARS, international security expert Mark Kanchian says that this weapon is not a panacea, and the "main killer" on the battlefield remains the cannon artillery, which the US also provided to Ukraine. And, finally, intelligence data is important, which helps the Ukrainian Armed Forces to strengthen their positions. General James Hecker, head of the US Air Force in Europe, also notes that the US only provides the data, and decisions about how to use it are made in Ukraine. For example, the idea and plan of the counteroffensive belong entirely to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, says the general. Regarding predictions of the development of events, Hecker compares the situation to COVID-19. Everyone hoped that it would last no longer than a couple of months, but the pandemic dragged on for years.
In an essay on The Conversation, scientist Natasha Lindstadt writes about sentiments regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war in Georgia. Lindstadt visited Tbilisi for a research project and saw pro-Ukrainian locals who contrasted with the pro-Russian authorities. The scientist writes that already after her arrival, her hotel reservation was canceled because Russian men had arrived earlier and were ready to pay more for the price on the website. These Russians came to Georgia to escape mobilization. Like the first wave of Russian migrants who sought a life without sanctions, this second wave is not so much opposed to the war as worried about their own lives. Regardless of the development of events in Ukraine, Georgia seems to have fallen into a trap, writes the author: if Putin fails in Ukraine, he can try to win in Georgia, which is smaller and worse armed. If he wins in Ukraine, he will not stop and will reach Georgia on his way to restore the empire. Since there are now many Russians in Georgia, the Kremlin can use its crowning pretext of "protecting Russian minorities" to invade.
CNN published an analytical article "Why Vladimir Putin is annexing the Ukrainian territory." The publication notes that the "accession agreement" planned for Friday will be the largest forcible annexation in Europe since 1945. The so-called referendums are a violation of international law, and their results were not recognized even by Russiaʼs long-time allies such as Serbia. However, the annexation is important, primarily giving an understanding of Putinʼs intentions and prospects for the development of the war. CNN quoted Aleksandr Baunov of the Carnegie Endowment as saying last week that the Kremlinʼs message was: "You decided to fight us in Ukraine, now try to fight us in Russia itself." Of course, first of all, we are talking about the doctrine of the use of nuclear weapons, which the Russian Federation can use in the event of a threat to its territories. The publicationʼs sources confirmed that the nuclear threat has increased, but there are currently no signs that Russia will use such weapons in the near future. So far, Putinʼs blackmail is not working, because Ukraine has only intensified its counteroffensive, and the West continues to provide assistance ― the USA has just announced a new batch of high-tech weapons for the Armed Forces. In the end, as former Obama administration official John Wolfstal wrote, "Putin gave us a choice: accept the redrawing of borders by force, or help Ukraine and preserve the concept of a nation-state by accepting nuclear risks."