Nikol Pashinyan: anti-corruption, nationalist and peacemaker (according to the situation)
In May 2018, Armenia experienced the Velvet Revolution. Then, Serzh Sargsyan, who had been president in a presidential republic for 10 years, became prime minister in a parliamentary republic. Before that, the form of government was changed in a referendum. Dissatisfied with this turn of events and corruption, citizens took to the streets to protest, and Sargsyan was forced to step down.
He was replaced by the leader of the protests, the well-known anti-corruption activist Nikol Pashinyan, who had once served two years in prison for participating in the demonstrations. His Civil Contract party became the basis of the My Step bloc, which won a majority in parliament.
In those elections, Pashinyan promised to “return power to the people”, fight corruption, carry out an economic revolution, and increase the combat capability of the Armed Forces.
Footage from the Velvet Revolution.
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For years, Pashinyan has gained notoriety for his outbursts about corruption and the dominance of the old elite. He was primarily referring to former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, whose group became known as the “Karabakh Clan”, they came from Karabakh.
When Pashinyan came to power, he drew a line between the Karabakh elites and the Karabakh issue. He argued that both Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh should be given security, and that Karabakh should negotiate independently with Azerbaijan to resolve territorial issues.
However, this did not happen. In the fall of 2020, after 44 days of war, Azerbaijan took control of most of Karabakh. At the same time, Pashinyanʼs rhetoric changed: he focused on nationalism and ties with the Russian Federation.
In the 2021 snap elections, the "Civil Treaty" advocated pan-Armenian unity: the rights and security of citizens of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as the Armenian diaspora in Nagorno-Karabakh. He called Russia a strategic ally of Armenia, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) a cornerstone of national security.
Pashinyan depended on Russia, which after the 2020 war sent its peacekeepers to Nagorno-Karabakh to control the contact line and the Lachin Corridor — a strip of land connecting Karabakh with Armenia.
«Babel'»
With no serious rivals, the “Civil Treaty” again won an absolute majority in parliament. However, Armenia ultimately lost the conflict. In the fall of 2023, after a ten-month blockade, Azerbaijan took control of the entire territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Russian peacekeepers did nothing, and in February 2024, Armenia ceased to participate in the work of the CSTO.
Pashinyan lost the war and received no support from the Russian Federation. He had only one path left: to become a “peacemaker” and a “Westerner”.
Russian peacekeepers in the Lachin Corridor in December 2022. In the background, so-called Azerbaijani environmental activists block the only road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. The blockade took place under the guise of demonstrations against the illegal use of Karabakh mines.
Getty Images / «Babel'»
Pashinyan today — The West, peace, and quarrels with refugees
In 2026, Nikol Pashinyan and his party are returning to the West. They no longer call Russia a strategic ally in their election program. Instead, they write that the party will develop constructive relations with Russia.
The party plans to keep Armenia in the Eurasian Economic Union, but only as long as it is compatible with European integration. First of all, Pashinyan promises to establish a visa-free regime with the European Union.
The basis of the election platform is peace with yesterdayʼs adversaries — Azerbaijan and Turkey. Armenia abandons "historical Armenia" (i.e. Armenia with Karabakh) in favor of "real Armenia" (i.e. Armenia within internationally recognized borders).
One of the symbols of the program is a badge in the form of an Armenian map, which the prime minister now always wears on his jacket. There are no terms "Artsakh" or "self-determination" in the new program. Armenia must sign a peace treaty and unblock the borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey. In order to make peace with Azerbaijan, Pashinyan will need to adopt a new Constitution, and through a referendum.
Meeting between Pashinyan and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul, June 20, 2025. Meeting between Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Abu Dhabi, February 4, 2026.
primeminister.am
Trying to gain ratings after losing territories and making concessions to Azerbaijan, Pashinyan presents himself as a man of the people. In October 2025, he posted a video of himself sadly silent to a song by singer Zemfira. When it became a meme, Pashinyan made this image his trademark. He is silent to the music and shows his followers hearts, rides public transport, eats pies and churchkhela, plays drums while French President Emmanuel Macron sings. During his public appearances, Pashinyan periodically meets those who clearly disagree with his policies — Karabakh refugees.
The most viral episode was when Pashinyan met a Karabakh refugee woman and her son in the subway. The Prime Minister wanted to give the boy his badge in the shape of a map of Armenia. The woman replied that they were from Karabakh and had a different map, and accused Pashinyan of surrendering territories. Pashinyan shouted at her (although he later apologized in absentia).
Pashinyan quarrels with a Karabakh refugee in the subway.
Karabakh refugees will not vote for Pashinyan. Most of them cannot vote at all. Karabakh Armenians (except for passports of the unrecognized republic) were issued Armenian passports with the code 070. This document gave all the same rights as other citizens of Armenia (for example, the ability to travel freely), except for one thing — the right to vote. 24 000 adult refugees received new passports, and with them the ability to vote, the remaining 70 thousand remain without them.
Now Pashinyan says that Armenia did not lose Karabakh because it was never its land, and that Azerbaijanʼs territorial integrity should have been recognized even earlier. He does not mention his words "Artsakh is Armenia, period!"
A crowd storms the government building after the announcement of a ceasefire in the Karabakh war, November 10, 2020.
Getty Images / «Babel'»
Pashinyan promises to turn the country away from Russia, but it is unknown whether he will succeed in doing so.
The Civic Pact, according to polls, could win two-thirds of the seats in parliament (at least it would definitely get an absolute majority) without even getting a third of the vote. This could happen because the Armenian opposition is fragmented. The fewer opposition parties that pass the threshold, the more seats the Civic Pact will win.
Data on the mood of Armenian voters from a sociological study by the American International Republican Institute. Every few months, it conducts the most comprehensive polls about these elections.
«Babel'»
However, even with such carte blanche, breaking away from Russia will be difficult, if at all possible.
- It is unknown whether the peace process with Azerbaijan will continue. For this, two-thirds of the parliamentarians must submit the new Constitution to a referendum. If the “Civil Agreement” does not win two-thirds of the seats, it will be difficult to find votes. Even if the parliament launches a referendum, it is not a fact that citizens will support the new Constitution.
- Armenia finds it difficult to fully integrate into the EU. Not only does it not border the EU, but it is also surrounded by states with which the EU has problems: Georgia, Iran, Turkey, and Azerbaijan.
- Armenia’s imports and exports rely on Russia. In 2025, trade turnover between the countries amounted to $7.7 billion. China is in second place with $2.6 billion. In 2022–2024, Armenia became the main transshipment point for Russian precious metals and stones, through which Russia imported smartphones, household appliances and cars. After the tightening of sanctions, trade turnover fell by almost 40%, but Russia is still the main trading partner.
- Armeniaʼs energy sector is dependent on Russia. Approximately 38% of the countryʼs electricity is generated by CHP plants. Armenia buys almost all of its gas from Russia at preferential rates.
Russia has launched the biggest trade war in its history with Armenia. It has banned the import of fruits and vegetables, flowers, and cognac. Russia is putting pressure on businesses close to Pashinyan: Jermuk mineral water has also been banned. The son of the owner of the Jermuk company is a member of the Civil Contract and the governor of the region where this water is bottled.
Ultimately, Armenians are divided on Russia. A third of the population sees Russia as Armeniaʼs main political threat. However, another third sees Russia as its main political partner.
«Babel'»
Even among Pashinyanʼs voters, almost half believe that the country should have a pro-Western course, but maintain relations with the Russian Federation.
Armenia enters the elections as a divided state with a national trauma. The current government is no longer as popular as before, although the opposition is even less popular. After the elections, Nikol Pashinyan will face economic problems — which will force him to maneuver and change his image again. And he is used to this.
Getty Images / «Babel'»
This publication was produced as part of the Seizing Synergies project, implemented by N-ost and supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). The content of this publication is the sole responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the BMZ.