The Russians occupied Siversk almost four months ago. Since then, according to the “DeepState” map, they have advanced almost ten kilometers in the Slovyansk direction (from the Siversk side), and according to the “Suriyak” map, they have advanced about fifteen.
Currently, the Slovyansk direction is one of the most dynamic in terms of the pace of advance.
«Babel'»
Did the offensive on Slovyansk accelerate after the loss of Siversk?
Partly yes, but there is a nuance. The situation has intensified not only from the direction of Siversk (east of Slovyansk), but also from the south — along the M-03 highway on the Vasyukivka — Nikyforivka section. These are currently some of the most active areas.
The Russians are also trying to press from the north — in the area of Yampil and Dibrova. That is, they are attacking Slovyansk from several directions at once, trying to stretch the Ukrainian forces along the entire line.
The “K-2” brigade says that the Russians continue to use the tactics of small and large “pincers”. That is, they bypass the Ukrainian positions from the sides: first with small forces, and then more widely to surround them.
The 81st Brigade clarifies that what now looks like an acceleration of the offensive is actually due to the fact that the Russians have been accumulating forces for a long time and gradually conducting an offensive in this direction for years. So the loss of Siversk is not the only reason, but only one of the episodes.
Where is it most difficult in the Slovyansk direction now?
The main efforts of the Russians in the Slovyansk direction are now focused on Mykolaivka. This is a settlement on high ground: whoever controls it controls the approaches to Slovyansk with fire. At the same time, a large open area leads to the city, which is difficult to cross.
Therefore, the Russians traditionally operate mainly in small groups, but at the same time they have brought up reserves, in particular the Rubicon unmanned systems unit, which destroys Ukrainian equipment on the approaches to Mykolaivka. If they manage to enter Mykolaivka, Slovyansk will be under constant artillery fire, and then they will have to think about a mass evacuation from the city.
In addition to Mykolaivka, the Russians have targeted Raihorodok. It is located near where the Kazennyi Torets River flows into the Siverskyi Donets, and is an important defensive line for Ukrainian forces. For the Russians, control of this area could weaken the water barrier that is holding back their advance from the Lyman. Raihorodok itself is constantly under Russian reconnaissance and fire.
The situation in the Kalenyki and Riznykivka areas remains the most ambiguous. If “DeepState” does not show these settlements as occupied, then the “Suriyak” map indicates the opposite. The units say that there is no complete occupation there.
The 45th brigade specifies that the Russians sometimes enter Kalenyki in small groups of one or two people, but these attempts have so far been unsuccessful. Riznykivka is more unstable. There the military records the advancement of small groups hiding in basements.
As stated in the “K-2” brigade, in both villages there is actually something like a "joint duty": there are both Ukrainian and Russian forces, each of which holds positions advantageous to itself.
«Babel'»
Has the warming situation changed?
Last time we wrote about the Slovyansk direction in February. At that time, the military said that with warming, Ukrainian forces could gain an advantage — because the ice on the Siverskyi Donets would melt.
Now the Siverskyi Donets is again working as a full-fledged defensive line. In winter, there were cases when the Russians crossed the river in small groups simply on the ice. Also, more than once, the Ukrainian military recorded and hit their vessels. Now the river is controlled by Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, warming in itself does not give a clear advantage to any of the sides — it simply changes the conditions of battle for everyone.
How did the loss of Siversk affect the neighboring Lyman direction?
The Russian army continues to advance on Lyman, but after an unsuccessful massive mechanized assault, it has returned to its usual tactics — small infantry groups on ATVs and motorcycles. Sometimes they manage to reach the outskirts of the city, but no further. At the same time, the Russians are constantly receiving reinforcements — often poorly trained, but in numbers.
That is, the pressure does not disappear. In general, the threat of encircling Liman remains. Now the “green light” is beginning, and this gives the Russian infantry more opportunities to hide from FPV drones and move closer to Ukrainian positions.
How realistic is the development of events in which the Russians will enter Slovyansk?
The 45th Brigade says that if the Russians continue to build up their forces and constantly send in reserves, they could enter Slovyansk from the east (from the direction of Siversk) by July. At the same time, such a threat from the south (from the direction of Nykyforivka) is unlikely. The 81st Brigade adds that a direct approach to the city does not currently look like a scenario for the near future.