The South China Sea is one of the worldʼs major shipping lanes.
About 30% of world trade passes through it, which is $3-5 trillion every year. And there are billions of barrels of oil and gas. About 10% of all the worldʼs seafood is caught in the South China Sea. And the total population of the countries bordering the sea is 2.2 billion people.
For China, which ships oil from the Middle East, the South China Sea is strategically important. As are Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei, which have major ports there. Each of these countries is trying to control as much territory as possible within the South China Sea. The most coveted pieces are the Paracel Islands and the Spratly Islands. However, the fight is also over much smaller islands.
Most of them are very small uninhabited patches of land or simply underwater reefs.
To mark their territory, countries usually place small fishing huts or observation posts with a few soldiers there.
Chinese flag-draped buildings on reefs in the South China Sea, owned by the Philippines. April 1995.
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International maritime law states that a countryʼs territory extends 12 nautical miles (22.2 km) from its shoreline. There is also an exclusive economic zone, which is 200 nautical miles (370 km) from its shoreline, within which countries have exclusive rights to explore and exploit any natural resources. Almost all countries in the South China Sea try to follow these rules.
But not China. Beijing claims almost the entire South China Sea and considers it its own.
China says it explored the sea and its islands centuries ago and has always controlled them. Official claims there were formed in 1947, after World War II. Then the Republic of China published a map on which it defined its territories in the South China Sea with 11 dashed lines. The communists who seized power in China also supported these claims, although they later gave in to their allies from North Vietnam and removed two of the lines. Since then, Chinaʼs territorial claims in the South China Sea have been defined as the "nine-dash line".
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Since the 1970s, China has been asserting its claims not in words but in deeds, seizing islands one by one.
To do this, Beijing uses two tactics: the “cabbage tactic” and the “salami slicing” tactic. The “cabbage tactic” is when the Chinese surround an island controlled by another country, first with fishing boats, then with maritime police, coast guard and warships. In this way, the island is cut off from external support, food and water supplies and then captured.
“Salami clicing” tactic is about China’s overall geopolitical strategy and its ability to achieve big gains in small steps that are difficult or illegal to achieve all at once. In the South China Sea, it looks like this: China is gradually seizing island after island, without using force. Each individual seizure does not tend to become the cause of a full-fledged military conflict, but all together gives tangible results.
Under Xi Jinping, China’s island raiding has gained momentum.
China has not just taken control of underwater reefs and isolated rocks. It has begun to dredge sand and create full-fledged islands, on which it has then located military bases. At some point, this phenomenon has been called the “great sand wall”. Within a few years, China has created full-fledged military bases from underwater reefs with radar equipment, air defense systems, and long runways where any combat or transport aircraft can land.
China has also changed its strategy at sea — it is seizing islands with the help of militarized "fishing boats". These ships are supposedly intended for fishing, but are armed with machine guns and water cannons. The crews are supposedly civilian, but they do not have enough people to catch fish. The hulls of the ships are more reinforced and armored, which allows them to easily ram real fishing boats of other countries and physically push them away from the desired islands. These ships regularly patrol the South China Sea and sail into the territorial waters of other states. They are called maritime police, but their fleet already outweighs most of the fleets of their neighbours in the region. Meanwhile, the Chinese coast guard is also constantly being strengthened with new ships that have significant advantages over their competitors.
China is opposed by Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea.
They are also building military bases on islands they control, although they are inferior to Chinaʼs in quantity and quality. They try to avoid direct combat with Chinese ships, but from time to time they arrest Chinese fishing boats. In 2013, the Philippines tried to fight China in international courts — an arbitration in The Hague sided with them, recognizing that China was violating international maritime law and that its claims under the "nine-dash line" were unfounded. Beijing says it will resolve the issue only in direct negotiations with each country separately.
Chinese military bases on islands in the South China Sea.
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The United States has no claims to the South China Sea, but it plays an important role in the region.
It supports international law and the principle of freedom of navigation, and therefore condemns Chinaʼs claims. In response to the seizure of the islands, the Americans conduct regular Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOP) in the South China Sea: American warships and aircraft patrol the disputed waters, and also demonstratively pass by Chinese islands. It is important for the United States to prevent a conflict at sea and support its allies — Vietnam and the Philippines. The United States even has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines and is obliged to protect them in the event of aggression.
The US presence in the South China Sea is important for pressure on China.
As early as the 1950s, the Americans proposed a strategic plan to contain communist China and the USSR through island belts with American military bases. The first belt passed through the Kuril Islands, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam. The second — through Japan, Guam, Palau and New Guinea. And the third — through the Aleutian Islands, Hawaii, American Samoa, Fiji and New Zealand.
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Any conflict in the South China Sea could lead to the world’s biggest problem — a direct military clash between China and the United States.
Some experts consider this sea even more dangerous than Taiwan. Fighting there could lead to trillions of dollars in losses, and the GDP of the countries in the region would fall by 10-33%. Since it is also the main route for imports and exports from China — the conflict would lead to a rise in oil prices and a global trade crisis.