China is training to block Taiwan and (possibly) preparing for an invasion. Military analysts see this and their forecasts are not very optimistic. Hereʼs what they write

The leaders of China and Taiwan have been communicating in the language of military exercises for several years.

The scale of the exercises increases every year. China regularly practices blocking Taiwan, closing the Taiwan Strait and conducting live fire near the island. And the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense constantly complains that Chinese aircraft violate the countryʼs airspace. In early April, the Chinese army held another military exercise near Taiwan. Beijing involved ground forces, navy, air force and missile forces in order to practice blocking the island and "targeted strikes".

In response, Taiwan is scaling up its annual military exercises. They will be held in two phases: in April and July. First, the Taiwanese military will hold war games, and in the summer they will engage in live fire exercises.

For two weeks during the games, Taiwanʼs military will be running through various scenarios. The basic scenario is that China suddenly blocks the island during its exercises. Previously, Taiwan held war games for 5-8 days, but now they will allocate 14 days for this. Both in the war games and in live fire, the military will involve drones, Abrams tanks, HIMARS systems, Harpoon anti-ship missiles and many other American weapons.

Chinese military exercises are not limited to Taiwan. In February-March 2025, Chinese warships sailed around Australia, repeatedly entering its territorial waters and conducting live fire exercises.

It is not surprising that American intelligence considers China to be “the most comprehensive and serious military threat”.

It states that Xi Jinping wants to achieve “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049 and believes that the United States is doing everything to contain China. Therefore, Beijing is actively developing its defense industry to achieve parity with the American one. Last year, China tested its third aircraft carrier, tested a hypersonic ballistic missile with a range of 5 000–8 000 kilometers, and created the most advanced multiple launch rocket system. In general, China can strike targets in the western Pacific with high-precision weapons, and it is also building military bases in other countries around the world. The Chinese government wants to create a non-nuclear warhead for its intercontinental ballistic missiles so that, if necessary, it can strike the United States with conventional weapons.

Although the United States has not promised to defend Taiwan, it is preparing for a possible war with China.

In October 2024, congressmen were briefed on the results of the war games so that they could understand what each countryʼs chances were and how best to act if China did dare to attack. CSIS analysts who conducted the games said that the alliance of the United States, Taiwan, and Japan was able to repel a Chinese amphibious invasion and preserve Taiwanʼs autonomy, although it suffered significant losses.

The war games identified four main principles for the war over Taiwan:

• the island must “hold the defense” against a land invasion;
• there is no “Ukrainian” model, where the US can gradually escalate — it must immediately decide whether to defend Taiwan;
• military operations will need to be conducted through Japan;
• the US must urgently increase supplies of anti-ship missiles.

According to estimates, China may choose “D-Day” for an invasion in 2026, and North Korea may take advantage of a convenient moment and invade South Korea — and its military will also draw on combat experience gained in the war in Ukraine.

Things are not looking good for Americans when it comes to nuclear weapons.

Analysts at the Heritage Foundation, which is considered close to the Trump team, write that the US nuclear triad is outdated and is being modernized more slowly than Chinaʼs. In particular, China wants to increase the number of its nuclear warheads to a thousand by 2030. According to the report, China is building more than 300 new mines for intercontinental ballistic missiles, as well as new submarines and strategic bombers.

Chinaʼs defense-industrial base is already operating at "wartime standards", and its shipbuilding capacity is 230 times that of the United States. Analysts predict that China will be ready to invade Taiwan militarily by 2027. The United States has so far maintained a policy of uncertainty, not saying whether it will defend the island or not.

There is another view: RAND analysts believe that China is not preparing for war.

The main goal of the Chinese Communist Party is to maintain power. The desire to control the military and civilians so that they are loyal to the party could hinder the Peopleʼs Liberation Army of China (PLA) in combat, especially against an adversary like the United States.

Analysts cite the fact that the PLA spends up to 40% of its training time on information and propaganda training. The Chinese army units are led not only by commanders, but also by political commissars, who value loyalty to the party more than combat effectiveness. Therefore, military commanders cannot react quickly and flexibly and lead the battle.

At the same time, China wants the future war to be “legally clean” from a legal point of view.

In 2005, it passed the Anti-Secession Law, which allows the use of “non-peaceful means” if Taiwan wants to secede. To this end, China has developed its own concept of “three types of wars”:

• legal war
• war of public opinion
• psychological war.

In this way, Beijing wants to create favourable conditions for itself to achieve its main goal — to capture Taiwan without firing a shot.