RUSI: Lack of personnel, guided aerial bombs and poor motivation are the main problems of the Ukrainian army. But Russia is also feeling the war more and more. 3 years of the great war — in 5 infographics

According to the GUR

of the Ministry of Defense, the Russians have involved about 600 thousand soldiers in the war against Ukraine. Analysts have studied and determined their number by direction. For example, in order to completely liberate the Kursk region, the Russians concentrated 70 000 people. This is more than half of all the troops stationed in southern Ukraine and holding the front line from the Black Sea to the Donetsk region. Similarly, the Russians have the largest number of troops where the most active fighting is taking place — in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The lack of people is one of the main problems of the Ukrainian army. Because of this, the military is forced to hold the defense in extremely difficult conditions. Usually two or three people are on duty at the positions. This makes them very vulnerable: if someone gets injured or dies, the other will have to either ignore it or evacuate and lose the position.

This is especially difficult in the face of constant Russian airstrikes with guided bombs. Ukraine has not yet found an effective and mass way to combat this Russian advantage. This also affects the motivation of the military.

At the beginning of 2024, Ukraine had another problem — political disputes in the United States, which blocked military assistance to the Ukrainian army. Then drones came to the rescue, which provided the vast majority of damage to Russian military and equipment. Drones still remain the main strike force. This is especially true for FPV drones. However, the Russians have learned to fight them — to jam their communication. Therefore, by the end of the year, fiber-optic FPV drones became more popular.

The Russians have made the greatest gains in the year in the Donetsk region, especially in the Donetsk direction. After the loss of Avdiivka, it has not been possible to stabilize the front line. The Russians have steadily advanced westward and captured the cities of Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Hirnyk, Ukrainsk, Selydove, Novohrodivka, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar. Now they have reached the outskirts of the cities of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad and are trying to surround them.

Also in the Donetsk region, the Russians broke through the defenses near Horlivka — the front line there has not changed since the beginning of the great war. They occupied the village of New York and almost captured the city of Toretsk. Fighting is also ongoing for the city of Chasiv Yar.

In other regions, the Russians made minimal progress. Their attempt to open a new direction in the north of the Kharkiv region was quickly stopped and prevented from breaking deep into the region.

The Russian army also has problems. Russia is making up for its losses with those who voluntarily sign contracts. Russians are lured into the army with large payments that are regularly increasing. This year alone, the average payment in Russia for signing a contract has increased from 500 000 rubles ($5 600) to almost 3 million rubles ($34 000).

The Russian economy also has problems because of the war: inflation, the ruble exchange rate, and the discount rate are rising. But now Ukraine is also helping this a lot. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said that 60% of the budget for the production of drones is directed precisely at those that strike deep into the Russian rear. The number of these strikes is also regularly increasing. The targets are military plants, ammunition depots, oil depots, and oil refineries.