The day before the war: Russia is concentrating troops, the West is looking for a compromise, Zelensky is under an assassination attempt. Read a reconstruction of the events of Jan-Feb 2022 based on 3 thorough books

January 1st

Veterans of volunteer battalions who served in Donbas are preparing for the invasion.

Former “Azov” regiment fighter Kostyantyn Nemichev

, who heads the Kharkiv Defense Committee, convinces journalists

information reference

He spoke with journalist Yaroslav Trofimov.

that he can deploy over a thousand fighters in three hours.

The law re-establishing the Territorial Defense Forces

(TDF) has come into effect. Civilian volunteers begin training under the guidance of professional soldiers. The process is slow. The volunteers take courses in tactical medicine and shoot at wooden dummies. They are few in number and seem unprepared for battle.

The Territorial Defense Forces Training, conducted by the Kharkiv Defense Unit.

January 9th

Russian diplomats are demanding that NATO countries withdraw their troops from Eastern Europe.

In late December, the US President Joe Biden promises in a telephone conversation with Russian leader Vladimir Putin to listen to his “security concerns” and discuss the future of the North Atlantic Alliance in order to postpone the invasion of Ukraine.

The Russians reject the idea of negotiations. They demand a written guarantee from the US that Ukraine will never join the Alliance, and that “NATO troops will pack up and return to where they were in 1997

”. The Americans refuse them and threaten them with sanctions.

The threat of sanctions has sent oil prices soaring, while the value of the hryvnia and President Zelensky’s approval rating have plummeted.

The Ukrainian government is focusing on its main domestic problems — the economy, inflation, and energy prices. The risk of a Russian invasion is not on that list.

Ukraineʼs fifth president Petro Poroshenko, who was charged with high treason the day before, says Zelensky is persecuting his political opponents. Western officials are asking not to deepen the political divide in the country, when more than 150 000 Russian troops are stationed near its border. Zelensky is not listening to them

.

Mid-January

The CIA Director William Burns warns Zelensky that Russia will invade “within weeks”.

He talks about Russian agents who may have infiltrated Ukrainian intelligence and shares the US intelligence. Russian troops will cross the Belarusian-Ukrainian border and seize the cargo airport in Hostomel. It will become a bridgehead where the Russians will use military transport planes to deliver soldiers and armored vehicles. They will take [occupy] Kyiv. Zelensky will be killed by special forces. The Russians will overthrow the government and install a pro-Russian regime.

Later, on February 24, the assault on the airport would catch the Ukrainian military by surprise

, despite Burnsʼ warning. Many units from this area had been transferred to the east, where the government expected the attack. Due to a lack of men and ammunition, the Ukrainians would initially retreat.

Zelensky decides that the American predictions are exaggerated

.

He is also told this by European leaders who are in contact with Putin. He asks Burns to stop talking openly about a possible Russian attack because it “harms the Ukrainian economy”.

Zelensky thinks that Russia will not have enough soldiers to occupy the capital. Moreover, only a madman could destroy Kyiv, which Putin supposedly defends and calls the “mother of Russian cities”, with shelling. Zelensky does not consider Putin to be such person. Zelensky thinks that the Russian leader is cold-blooded, cautious, and embittered, but certainly not capable of genocide. He also believes that Russians will protest if an invasion begins.

The head of GUR

Kyrylo Budanov, would later explain to journalist Yaroslav Trofimov why Ukrainians and Americans perceived the threat of an attack differently. The US intelligence intercepted messages from high-ranking Russian officials — they knew that generals were reporting to Putin. And the Ukrainians used sources in the lower echelons of the military and knew that Putin was being lied to.

January 19th

Biden says at a press conference that if Russia’s invasion is “minor”, world leaders will argue about what to do and what not to do.

His words cause confusion among allies. Zelensky writes on Twitter that there are no “minor invasions and casualties”. Biden’s advisor Jake Sullivan urgently calls the leaders of the nine countries that make up NATO’s eastern flank and Japan and assures them that the US position has not changed. Biden has to explain that any invasion of Russian troops into Ukrainian territory is aggression.

The US president instructs Blinken to talk to the Russians about their “security concerns”.

“If there’s even a 0.1% chance of deterring [Russian aggression], it’s worth it,” he says. Biden is still looking for a compromise.

Zelensky urges Ukrainians not to panic in a video message.

He advises them to calm down and not believe rumours, because Russia is deliberately sowing panic to scare people and discourage investors. He assures that the Ukrainian army is ready for anything.

End of January

On January 21, Blinken meets with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva, Switzerland.

He says the United States is aware of preparations for a full-scale invasion and offers to “de-escalate the situation”. For example, address Russia’s “security concerns” about not deploying nuclear or long-range weapons near the Ukrainian-Russian border.

Lavrov remains ostentatiously silent for most of the meeting. When they are left face to face, Blinken asks him to explain what is really going on. Lavrov flatly denies preparing for an invasion. Later, American intelligence would learn that he had only partial knowledge of Putin’s plans.

NATO is preparing to defend the Alliance countries in Eastern Europe.

The United States is placing more than 8 500 military personnel, NATO aircraft and ships on high alert. American and European diplomats are leaving Ukraine. Zelensky is reacting painfully to this.

“This is not the Titanic,” he says at a meeting with journalists. The president believes that the Russians’ actions are just psychological pressure.

February 8th

The military exercises "Snowstorm 2022" have begun.

In fact, this is a cover to prepare for war, secretly move troops and disguise weapons: planes, tanks, armoured vehicles and anti-aircraft systems. Ukraine has gathered approximately 110 thousand soldiers: 45 thousand are on the front line in the east, the rest are training to repel Russian attacks.

"Snowstorm 2022" training.

cg.gov.ua

cg.gov.ua

cg.gov.ua

The military has gathered to plan the defense of the region in Chernihiv.

These are the commanders of the Territorial Defense Forces, retired Major General Serhii Kryvonos, military Maksym Konashevych and other participants in the fighting in Donbas. They are preparing for Russian artillery and missile attacks on critical infrastructure.

“Even if the country’s leadership orders us to surrender, we will not surrender. Everyone is counting only on themselves, friends, family and brothers,” says Konashevych

.

February 11th and 12th

Putin’s order to invade could come in a matter of “weeks, days, or hours”.

The Russians are blocking the Black Sea, setting up field hospitals along the border, replenishing blood supplies, bringing in mobile morgues and more military equipment. Sullivan, at a White House briefing, urges all US citizens to leave Ukraine immediately within two days. He says that American troops will not fight in Ukraine or evacuate people from the combat zone, lest they repeat the experience of Afghanistan.

Russian equipment on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.

Getty Images / «Babel'»

Getty Images / «Babel'»

Aleksandr Lukashenko arrived for joint "training" between Russia and Belarus, February 17, 2022.

Getty Images / «Babel'»

French President Emmanuel Macron calls Putin every day.

He believes he can convince him not to attack Ukraine. Before and after each conversation, he calls Biden.

"Putin gave me his word that there would be no invasion," Macron says after one of the calls.

“I’m open to further negotiations with Putin if you think we can contain him,” Biden replies, adding: “Personally, I believe he has already made the decision to invade.”

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi discusses the first results of “Snowstorm 2022” — he is disappointed.

He “shouts for an hour”

at a meeting at the General Staff. Basic maneuvers that simulated Russian attacks revealed serious shortcomings in Ukraine’s defense. Zaluzhnyi believes that Russia could invade at any minute. The army lacks ammunition, fuel, uniforms, and body armour.

Mid-February

The West is providing $1.5 billion in military aid.

The US is sending 1 300 tons of equipment, the UK is sending almost 2 000 NLAW anti-tank missiles, 30 elite soldiers who will be trained to use them, body armour, helmets, and combat boots. The allies are also sending a large shipment of weapons from Bulgaria, which were to be used by the US troops in the operation in Afghanistan.

On February 16, Zelensky arrived in Rivne to assess the “Snowstorm 2022” training.

Zaluzhnyi gives him a tour of the training base and shows him the weapons that the West has transferred. These are anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems. He is keeping quiet about the details of his strategy, because he is afraid of information leaks. Zaluzhnyi does not tell anyone the details of “Snowstorm 2022” and the plan of action in the event of a Russian invasion. He is afraid that his strategy will open up to the Russians, Ukrainian society, or Zelensky.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine constantly communicates and consults with General Mark Milley, who heads the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. When he asks to see an action plan, Zaluzhnyi gives him a fake information.

On February 18, the US and Russian defense ministers speak by phone.

“I see you building up troops on the border,” says Lloyd Austin.

“Itʼs just training,” Sergei Shoigu replies.

“If these are exercises, when will they end?” Austin asks. Shoigu evades the answer. “We know exactly what you’re doing. Don’t do it.”

February 19th

Austin visits the Baltics and convinces local governments that NATO will protect them.

No one expects Ukraine to last long. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia worry they will be next.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the Munich Security Conference and then meets with Volodymyr Zelensky.

She convinces him that Russia will attack in a matter of days, or even minutes. Zelensky does not believe her: “They threaten us, they intimidate us. They always do that.”

He is skeptical of American predictions. Recently, Biden, speaking to European leaders, said that the invasion would begin on February 16. That prediction did not come true.

Harris is accompanied by National Security Advisor Philip Gordon, and Zelensky is accompanied by the head of the Presidentʼs Office Andriy Yermak and Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov. The delegations sit across from each other at the negotiating table. Due to strict Covid restrictions, the Americans are wearing masks and are not shaking hands with the Ukrainians. This emphasizes the distance between them and irritates Zelensky. He’s about to be lectured.

According to American intelligence, the Russians have amassed 200 000 troops, 40 000 of them in Belarus. Reznikov denies this — there are fewer than 10 000 Russian soldiers in Belarus. He believes the Belarusians will not join the war. Gordon provides satellite images of troop buildups. Zelensky denies everything, and Harris’s tone is reminiscent of a prosecutor.

“What do you want me to do? If I acknowledge [the threat of invasion] in this conversation, will you impose sanctions? Close ports to Russian ships? Give us ʼStingerʼ and ʼJavelinʼ missiles, fighter jets?” Zelensky asks after the argument.

“We cannot punish for a crime that has not yet been committed.”

Harris advises mobilizing more troops, developing an escape plan, and deciding who will run the country if Zelensky is captured or killed.

“We are with you,” she adds, softening her tone. Harris later suggested that this meeting with Zelensky could be the last. The president has made it clear that he is staying in Kyiv.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump informs he will run for president.

He tells Senator Lindsey Graham that he will “stay in the game and just wait for the others [Biden] to break”.

February twenty-first

At a meeting of the Russian Security Council, the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions are unanimously recognized as independent.

In an address, Putin calls Ukraine a “colony with a puppet regime” and accuses its government of torture and genocide in Donbas. Russian-backed militants are forcing locals to leave their homes and forcibly conscripting men into the army. Biden issues a decree blocking all economic activity in these territories.

The next day, Trump calls

the decision a stroke of genius and Putin a peacemaker.

He believes the tanks will keep the peace, and the same tactic could be used on the southern US border with Mexico to combat migrants.

“I knew he always wanted Ukraine,” Trump adds.

Zaluzhnyi is holding final meetings.

He is checking that the military has taken all necessary preparations. In the last days before the invasion, they are secretly moving air defense systems and warplanes. They will eventually survive a barrage of missile strikes and bombings — the Russian air force will not dominate the air.

February 22nd

Zelensky and his team are trying to calm the population.

“If we sow chaos among the people before the invasion, the Russians will swallow us up,” the president says. He does not believe to the last that the invasion will be as large-scale as the Americans predict. In his opinion, the biggest threat is a massive outflow of people and capital.

Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov receives a daily intelligence report — it contains a detailed plan to assassinate Zelensky.

Ukrainian special services are monitoring three groups of killers, all of them from Chechnya. They are preparing for the “Kabul scenario” — a quick attack on the presidential complex. In the evening, Danilov hands the document to Zelensky. He does not believe that in the 21st century, killers can hunt the head of a European state.

February 23rd

The entire White House staff is waiting for word that Putin has ordered an attack on Ukraine.

Sullivan is holding a meeting on Ukraine.

A state of emergency is being declared in Ukraine.

Danilov is still trying to calm people down.

“These are preventive measures to keep the country calm and the economy working,” he says.

In the evening, Zelensky meets with oligarchs and other influential businessmen.

“You all should be here. Those who are not just making money in this country, but want to live here and provide jobs for hundreds of thousands of people, should stay, because these people are watching you,” he says.

Night of February 23rd to 24th

The US intelligence reports that the invasion will happen tonight. Zelensky calls the Kremlin, but is ignored.

The president records an appeal to the Russians.

“If we are attacked, you will see our faces, not our backs,” he says.

Putin announces a “special military operation in Ukraine”.

Russian troops advance from Belarus, occupied Donbas, and Crimea. Explosions are heard in cities. The Pentagon says Ukraine will hold out for 3-4 days. There is a more optimistic forecast — the war will last several weeks. Zelensky calls British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

“We will fight, Boris. We are not going to give up,” Zelensky tells him.

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