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In a few days, Germany will elect a new chancellor to replace Olaf Scholz. Who could it be? What does this mean for Ukraine? Babelʼs analysis

Author:: Oleksiy Yarmolenko
Editor:: Glib Gusiev

Date:: 08:00, 21 february 2025

In a few days, Germany will elect a new chancellor to replace Olaf Scholz. Who could it be? What does this mean for Ukraine? Babelʼs analysis — Social Democrat leader Olaf Scholz and CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz at a debate.

Getty Images / «Babel'»

Germany will hold early parliamentary elections on February 23 — only the fourth time in post-war history. Incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz will definitely lose power, because his party is third in the election race. The future leader of Germany will most likely be Friedrich Merz, who has been waiting for this for more than 20 years. A lot of problems already await him: the economic crisis, support for Ukraine, the unification of Europe and very difficult relations with the USA. Babel talks about how important Germany is to Ukraine, whether its attitude towards us will change and what the possible results of the elections are.

The Russian invasion of February 24, 2022, marked the beginning of a new crisis for Germany.

The country had just recovered from the previous one, caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Its economy depended on energy resources, which it imported from Russia

Before the Great War, the Germans imported 55% of all gas, 50% of coal, and 35% of oil from Russia. They had to give it all up.

and for which it had to find a replacement. However, Germany accounts for almost a quarter of the European Unionʼs economy. It is in Germany that the European Central Bank is located.

Gerhard Schröder, Angela Merkel, Mark Rutte, Dmitrii Medvedev, Erwin Sellering and Matthias Warnig among others at the symbolic launch of the first phase of “Nord Stream” in November 2011.

Getty Images / «Babel'»

Since 2022, Germany has been trading significantly more with Eastern European countries, including Ukraine. Ukraine sells most of its raw materials and agricultural products to Germany: rapeseed, corn, cables, furniture, and pipes. The Germans, on the other hand, sell more technological goods to Ukraine: cars, medicines, petroleum products, and agricultural machinery. In 2023, Germany became Ukraineʼs third largest importer and fifth largest exporter.

In addition, Germany ranks second in terms of aid to Ukraine — it already amounts to $44 billion. Most of the aid is military. These are hundreds of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armoured vehicles, Patriot and IRIS-T air defense systems, dozens of artillery systems and several HIMARS, hundreds of thousands of various shells, as well as trucks, cars, radars, drones, walkie-talkies, demining machines, cartridges, medicines, uniforms, generators, explosives. And this list is not complete

For example, Ukraine became the worldʼs first operator of German “Skynex” anti-aircraft artillery systems and RCH 155 wheeled howitzers.

, since the Germans have only ordered many weapons from their enterprises and are waiting for them to be manufactured.

The Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Oleksiy Makeyev at the handover ceremony of the first RCH 155 wheeled artillery, January 2025.

Getty Images / «Babel'»

That is why it is important for Ukraine who will become the new Chancellor — the head of the German government, who has broad powers, including in foreign policy. However, to form a government in Germany, a coalition in parliament is needed. Usually, none of the German parties wins a majority on their own, so they have to negotiate with others.

What are the poll data?

30% — the CDU/CSU bloc, which in Germany is called the "Union"
21% — right-wing radical Alternative for Germany
15% — Social Democrats, who won the last election
13% — "Greens"

In this yearʼs elections, the CDU/CSU bloc is predicted to win. It is led to a likely victory by 69-year-old lawyer Friedrich Merz.

He has been in politics for a long time — since 1989. First, he was a member of the European Parliament, and then a member of the Bundestag. Merz rose rapidly in his party career and in the early 2000s headed the CDU/CSU

The Christian Democratic Union party and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union.

faction.

However, after losing the 2002 election, he ceded the position to future Chancellor Angela Merkel. Merz fought her for the party leadership, but was unsuccessful. So in 2009, he retired from politics, and Merkel ruled Germany for 16 consecutive years. Merz, meanwhile, built a successful career as a lawyer, served on the advisory and supervisory boards of German companies, and became wealthy.

When Merkel informed about her retirement from politics in 2018, Merz decided to seize the opportunity. But within the party, the candidates Merkel had pointed to were winning. Merz waited for their failures and in 2022, he did lead the party.

Under Merz’s leadership, the CDU/CSU’s policies began to shift to the right. All because Germany’s main problem is migrants. Friedrich Merz has taken a tough stance: he proposes to limit illegal migration, turn asylum seekers away at the borders, and abolish “rapid naturalization”. The topic of migrants became even more relevant during this election campaign, when in January 2025 an Afghan migrant attacked a group of children in the city of Aschaffenburg. He killed a two-year-old boy and a man who was trying to protect the children.

In order to boost the party’s ratings and to hijack the issue of migrants from the supporters of the far right, Merz came close to violating one of the main unwritten principles of German politics – the “firewall”. After World War II, German parties agreed not to cooperate with the far right. But at the end of January, the CDU/CSU submitted a new plan to parliament to tighten migration controls – and it was approved with the help of votes from the far right Alternative for Germany

Far-right populist party that advocates ending aid to Ukraine and lifting sanctions against Russia.

. Merz was criticized for this by both other parties and his own party. Now Merz is justifying this vote and emphasizes that he will not cooperate with the far right.

Protests against the Alternative for Germany party, February 2025.

Getty Images / «Babel'»

Protests against the Alternative for Germany party, February 2025.

Getty Images / «Babel'»

During the full-scale invasion, Merz visited Ukraine several times and met with Volodymyr Zelensky.

He supports the provision of both humanitarian and military aid, but is not ready to talk about security guarantees or German peacekeepers. The main difference from the current government is that Merz wants to allow the supply of Taurus

A German-Swedish cruise missile with a range of 500 kilometers. Scholz consistently opposed the supply of these missiles.

cruise missiles to Ukraine.

Merz emphasizes that Ukraine should be allowed to strike targets on Russian territory with German weapons, because now “we are allowing Ukraine to fight with one hand tied behind its back”. According to him, Ukraine has the prospect of becoming an EU member, and its path to NATO is “irreversible”. As for the US, Merz promises tougher relations with the new administration. He especially wants to complain to Trump about Elon Musk, who publicly supported the Alternative for Germany.

It is almost impossible for one party to form a coalition on its own.

To do this, Merz will need partners. He has already said that he will not cooperate with the far right. He does not want to unite with the Social Democrats led by Olaf Scholz. The most likely is a coalition with the Greens, but their views on solving the migrant problem differ significantly.

Ultimately, Merz will face difficult challenges: first forming an effective coalition within Germany, and then becoming the leader of a united Europe.