The National Bank of Ukraine has improved the forecast of the fall in GDP based on the results of 2022. There they believe that it will fall by 32% this year, but then it will start to recover.
The press service of the NBU writes about this.
"After a deep recession at the beginning of the war, economic activity is slowly recovering. This is facilitated by the further liberation of Ukrainian lands from Russian occupiers, the adaptation of business to new conditions, and the operation of the "grain" corridor. On the other hand, logistical problems, the destruction of enterprise capacities, a decrease in the real incomes of citizens, and lower indicators of agriculture are holding back the recovery of the economy," the report says.
At the same time, the NBU predicts growth in the coming years. In 2023-2024, the economy will recover gradually at the level of 4-5% each year. A key forecast for this is an easing of security risks from mid-2023. That is, the NBU believes that in the middle of 2023, hostilities will almost completely cease.
The National Bank also believes that inflation will rise to 30% by the end of 2022. Next year, it should be less than 21%, and a year later, it should fall below 10%.
- According to the results of the first three quarters of the current year, the fall in the gross domestic product of Ukraine amounted to approximately 30%. At the same time, the Ministry of Economy pays attention to the positive factors of economic growth. Among them is the improvement of the dynamics of transport thanks to the growth of the export of agricultural products by sea transport and the increase of cargo transportation by railway.
- The World Bank improved Ukraineʼs GDP growth forecast for next year from 2.1 to 3.3%.