British Intelligence predicts that even the partial mobilization announced by Putin will most likely be extremely unpopular among part of the Russian population.
This is stated in the daily report of the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain.
"Putin is taking a significant political risk, hoping to build the necessary combat power. This step is actually a recognition that the Russian Federation has exhausted the supply of volunteers willing to fight in Ukraine," the summary reads.
British intelligence also notes that the new formations that Russia will create thanks to the newly mobilized forces are unlikely to be combat-capable within a few months.
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also believes that Russiaʼs partial mobilization will not significantly affect the course of the war in the coming months.
"The announcement of a “partial mobilization” on September 21 reflected many of the problems facing Russia during the failed invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow is unlikely to be able to solve in the coming months. Putinʼs order to mobilize part of Russiaʼs "trained" reserve. That is, people who have completed their military service, will not create a significant Russian fighting force for months. This may be enough to maintain the current level of Russian military strength in 2023 by compensating for Russian losses, although even that is still unclear,” the ISW noted.