American historian Timothy Snyder believes that the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war will be key to the future fate of the world. He writes about this in an essay on Foreign Affairs. According to the author, the victory of Ukraine will give the opportunity to "people of good will" to deal with other geopolitical challenges, while the victory of Russia will put an end to the development of the EU. If the Russian Federation wins, it will also strengthen other tyrants and fascists of the world and give new arguments to nihilists who believe that politics is just a show directed by oligarchs, Snyder writes. The author recalls the ancient Greek legend of Poseidon and Athena, who competed for the status of patron of the city we now know as Athens. Poseidon offered power in the sea ― a trident, while Athena gave people an olive tree ― symbol of peace and prosperity. Snyder sees many parallels with this legend in the history of Ukraine, the territory of which has historically been contested by various states. The war in Ukraine is a test of whether a tyranny that calls itself a democracy can win and thereby spread its vacuum of logic and ethics. Americans seem to have forgotten, writes Snyder, that democracies do not emerge by themselves as the only appropriate form of government ― and Ukraine reminded the world that history is not happening, but being made. The historian also writes about the importance of freedom of speech as the basis of democracy, and the fact that this freedom in Ukraine as such poses a threat to the Russian Federation. The author compares Zelensky with the ruler of Athens Pericles, quotes Euripides and mentions the ideas of Plato. To win the war and give democracy a new lease of life, Snyder concludes, Ukraine must choose the values of both Poseidon and Athena ― determination and commerce, as well as prudence and prosperity.
According to a new report by the World Bank, the European Commission and the Ukrainian government, the recovery of Ukraine will cost €346 billion, writes Deutsche Welle. The report takes into account the damage that Russia caused in the period up to June 1, the publication writes. Housing, transport, trade and industry were the most affected by the hostilities. Economic recovery is a difficult challenge, because in the second quarter, Ukraineʼs GDP fell by 37%. In addition, it is critical to start rebuilding infrastructure now, while the fighting is still ongoing. This primarily concerns social infrastructure, transport, and preparation for a possible energy shortage in winter. The article also talks about the stories of Ukrainians who feel the threat of poverty due to the invasion of Russia: many have lost their jobs, and the cost of living has increased significantly. According to the report, the level of poverty in Ukraine will increase tenfold and every fifth Ukrainian will live in poverty by the end of this year. The National Bank of Ukraine predicts that if hostilities slow down, Ukraine will resume economic growth in 2023. The opportunity to export grain plays a big role, but Putin can break the agreement at any moment, the publication writes.
Researcher of international politics and Turkey Nicholas Danforth writes in War On The Rocks about the role and position of Turkey in the Russian-Ukrainian war. In recent years, Ankara has pursued an increasingly independent foreign policy, which partially contradicted the interests of the United States, writes Danforth. The position of Turkey regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war is an example of that. For now, Erdogan is managing not to take sides in the conflict, which has brought many benefits to Ankara, but has also caused concern among the countryʼs Western allies. Danforth believes that such a position of Turkey is possible only thanks to the success of the Ukrainian resistance supported by the West. If Russia had won, the West would have been much tougher on Turkeyʼs refusal to impose sanctions against Russia or to negotiate for Finland and Sweden to join NATO. A weak Russia is what made Erdoganʼs foreign policy successful, Danforth believes. This applies not only to the Black Sea region, but also to the strengthening of Turkeyʼs positions in Nagorno-Karabakh and Syria.