Yesterday we wrote about a special print issue of The Atlantic magazine dedicated to Ukraine, which will be released in October. Today, the media published the second essay in the series, this time by Anne Applebaum. It is about Belarusians who fight for Ukraine in the regiment named after Kastus Kalynovsky. Kalinovsky took part in the 1863 uprising against the Russian occupation of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. A separate unit within the Ukrainian Armed Forces, named in his honor, is fighting not only against Russia, but also with the hope of liberating Belarus from Lukashenkoʼs dictatorship, says Applebaum, who spoke with the soldiers of the regiment. Among the reasons that motivate Belarusians to fight on the Kyiv side, one of the soldiers mentions that they did not finish the revolution and did not prevent Russian troops from attacking Ukraine from the territory of their Belarus. Among the volunteers are recent school graduates, factory workers, and policemen. All of them are checked with the help of hacked databases of the Belarusian KDB, and information about the number of Belarusians in Kalinovskyʼs regiment, their names, places of service or training is kept secret. Applebaum writes that the fighters of Kalinovskyʼs regiment are convinced that the Belarusian regime is weaker and more dangerous than everyone thinks. They believe that if Putin convinces Lukashenko to use Belarusian troops for the war in Ukraine, many soldiers will surrender, and most of the Belarusian tanks will be under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The fighters are also talking about a forceful scenario to eliminate the Lukashenko regime in Belarus, and they hope that Ukrainians, Poles and the West will be able to help with this. This development of events will be possible after the victory of Ukraine, which will weaken both Russia and its "Belarusian satrap".
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian of Yale University write about the consequences of capping Russian oil prices in an article at Foreign Policy. The authors noted considerable skepticism among experts and the media in response to the announcement by the G7 countries about limiting the price of purchasing Russian oil. Sonnenfeld and Tian themselves consider this measure quite effective, and hereʼs why. First, the sixth package of EU sanctions prohibits the import of Russian oil by sea starting December, petroleum products from February, and this, according to analysts, may lead to a rapid increase in prices. Therefore, the introduction of an upper limit on the cost of oil will prevent Putin from reaping the benefits that he could count on. Second, critics say the G7 price cap is ineffective because other countries like India, China and Turkey wonʼt agree to it ― but Sonnenfeld and Tian are confident that the G7 sanctions will keep oil prices low for other countries, thus placing a greater burden on the economy of the Russian Federation. This opinion was confirmed by the Minister of Economy of one of the Asian countries, who is convinced that thanks to the Great Seven he will be able to agree on a price even lower than the initial offer of the Russian Federation with a discount of $30 per barrel. Thirdly, in response to objections about the impossibility of regulating the price cap and the logistical challenges of such a solution, the authors write that the search for "workarounds" will still cost Russia quite a lot, and large multinational companies will not take the risks of financing, buying or insuring Russian oil. In addition, the authors draw attention to the confusion in the media, which writes that Putin can allegedly compensate for lower prices by increasing production. This is not the case, because Russia is one of the least efficient producers of oil in the world, and to the already high cost of production will be added the increase in transportation costs. Ultimately, Sonnenfeld and Tian donʼt think Putin can simply stop selling oil, as he has threatened. The export of energy sources provides more than half of the revenues of the Russiaʼs state budget, and the costs of the war in Ukraine are constantly increasing. So, the authors conclude, limiting the price of Russian oil will bring much more benefit than the critics of this idea currently imagine.