One of the few British experts who predicted the defeat of the Russians in the battle for Kyiv, Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Andrews, Philip OʼBrien, shared his conclusions and predictions about the war in Ukraine with the Financial Times. In his opinion, the front line is not the main thing to watch now, because modern war is not limited to it. And even the statistics of weapons supplies from the West for Ukraine are only one of the important factors. Another, rather more important factor is the fact that tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are currently undergoing training in Britain, Poland, and Germany. The offensive operations require skilled, motivated and full of strength personnel ― and Ukraine, refusing major operations now, is giving time for the training of this personnel. Soon they will arrive at the front, and for now the precision strikes of long-range artillery systems weaken what Ukrainian soldiers will face in the offensive. "These are no longer the times when monumental tank battles should be expected. The same tank has become very vulnerable against modern weapons. The offensive on Kherson actually began a long time ago, it just looks like the maximum exhaustion of the Russian army before the actual battles. So far, even the ground offensive operations of the Ukrainians are mostly aimed at lowering the morale of the Russians." According to OʼBrien, the Russiansʼ problems with this spirit are evidenced by the sluggishness of the mobilization in Russia. On the one hand, Russian politicians and propagandists switch to falsetto in calls to destroy Ukraine, on the other ― they barely manage to scrape together tens of thousands of new soldiers who go to war primarily for money. And the Russians train these soldiers much worse than the Ukrainians. "Can you imagine an offensive by the Russians next summer, as massive and bloody as the operations of these summer months?" ― asks OʼBrien. And he himself answers that the probability of this is extremely low. It is possible that the Russians will be able to fight in the fall and winter, but they have practically finished offensive operations ― and a soldier who does not advance becomes a target, the expert reminds.
Jamie Dettmer, the editor of the authorʼs columns department of the European version of Politico, assures the publicationʼs audience that the rapid departure of Ukraine from the Russian cultural and informational context can provoke significant problems. The journalist sees dangerous signals in the mass transition of Ukrainians to Ukrainian, in the rejection of Russian toponyms in Ukrainian cities, in the banning of Russian books. On the one hand, writes Dettmer, he fully understands the need of Ukrainians to do so, on the other ― he draws attention to the fact that about a quarter of the population of Ukraine indicate Russian as their native language in surveys ― and, in his opinion, the elimination of Russian informational influence can discriminate against these people. What, first of all, will give a trump card to Putin, who will make even more noise about suppressing the rights of Russian speakers. And secondly, it can bring the war to the ethnic level, Detmer believes. He cites reports from organizations such as Human Rights Watch that "expressed concern" back when Ukraine implemented new language legislation requirements in January ― for example, when the law required all media outlets to have Ukrainian as the main version. The author also quotes the words of Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security Council, that "nothing Russian will remain here." And reminds that "Ukrainian and Russian cultures are still inseparably connected and contribute to each otherʼs development." Proof of this, according to Dettmer, are the texts of Taras Shevchenko, who wrote his poems in Ukrainian, and his prose and personal diary in Russian. The author ends his reasoning with the question of what Ukraine will do in the event that Crimea is recaptured. After all, 65 percent of its population are ethnic Russians, and only the new norms of Ukrainian language legislation can turn them against Kyiv. "As Ukraine goes about trying to win this war, it also needs to think about how it will win the peace," concludes Dettmer.