The Washington Post has published another article from the Russiaʼs Bet series, this time about how Ukraine managed to save Kyiv from capture. The article talks about the first weeks of the full-scale invasion, when Putin planned a blitzkrieg, the capture of the capital, and the installation of a puppet government in Kyiv. Despite the fact that the countryʼs leaders underestimated the probability of a full-scale invasion, the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out the necessary preparations, which allowed them to withstand the initial bombardment by Russian aircraft. Though, in the middle of March, the defenders of Kyiv were left without artillery ammunition, because in the early days the USA provided Ukraine with mainly portable weapons, convenient for guerrilla warfare. Pentagon believed that Russia would quickly seize power. The publication writes that despite the lack of weapons and the suddenness of the attack, the will to defend independence and knowledge of the area around Kyiv were decisive for Ukrainians. The determination of the countryʼs leaders, in particular President Zelensky, who, despite everything, decided to stay in Kyiv was also important. It is interesting that in the first hours of the offensive Ukraine was offered to capitulate: both Putinʼs administration directly and the Minister of Defense of Belarus.
Politico writes about the main tools of Ukraine in the information war. The publication distinguishes four main tactics of Kyiv, which are largely borrowed from the Kremlinʼs "textbook". The first tool is the control of the narrative, within the framework of which Ukraine, from the first days of the full-scale war, maximally increased the presence of President Zelensky, various ministries and other official structures and persons in social networks. The second tactic is to divide the Internet: the Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov is conducting a campaign to isolate the Russian digital ecosystem, due to which many digital services have left Russia. Thirdly, Ukraine attracted thousands of hackers around the world to the "IT army", which attacked Russian resources, state media, and leaked a lot of personal data to the Internet. This tactic, writes Politico, is similar to the tactics of the Kremlin, which has been using hackers for its own purposes for many years. Finally, the fourth tactic is the use of artificial intelligence to achieve military and civilian goals. Ukraine uses Palantir and Clearview AI programs, which in many Western countries have a reputation bordering on legality. Critics of such software believe that its mass use can easily lead to a violation of Internet usersʼ right to privacy.
Putin thinks that the cold winter will save his campaign in Ukraine, writes Reuters. The harsh winter climate already helped Russia to achieve military goals ― for example, during the war with Napoleon or in the confrontation with Hitler. Now Putin hopes that expensive electricity and a lack of resources this winter will force the EU to put pressure on Ukraine to conclude a truce with the Russian Federation on terms favorable to the Kremlin. This strategy was confirmed to Reuters by two anonymous sources from the Kremlin, who also say that it will be difficult for the Russian Federation to continue the war after the winter. One of the sources also believes that acceptable conditions for the Kremlin mean giving the entire Donbas to Russia and ensuring the "military neutrality" of Kyiv. These conditions are absolutely unacceptable for Ukraine, and therefore it is not worth hoping for peace talks in the near future, experts say. But there are other opinions among experts: that the West, allegedly fearing nuclear escalation, may force Ukraine to agree to unfavorable terms, or that Ukraine will find itself in a situation where a quarter of its territory will be controlled by Russia, the material says. So, much will depend on the ability of the Western allies to maintain unity in the issue of comprehensive support for Ukraine.