Bruce Jentleson, author of the book "Sanctions: What Everyone Needs to Know", writes about the impact of sanctions on the Russian and Western economies in an essay on Foreign Policy. The author identifies three phases of the "sanctions war" ― deterrence, coercion and exhaustion. Deterrence has not worked, although the likelihood that it will work is slim, Gentleson said. The threat of sanctions has never been an effective deterrent to a determined war-seeking aggressor. The second phase is the mass sanctions applied against the Russian Federation along with the support of Ukraine, which should force Putin to back down, and act slowly, given the dependence of the sanctions on Russian energy resources. Nevertheless, these sanctions have caused significant damage to the Russian economy, the countryʼs GDP growth forecast is the worst since the stormy 90s, in March the ruble fell in half compared to the dollar. In response to this wave of sanctions, the Kremlin took a number of measures: it found other buyers of energy resources, stole and sold Ukrainian grain. The increase in pensions, together with repression against the disaffected, curbed the first wave of protests among the local population. Now we are in the third phase, writes Gentleson, in which both the West and the Russian Federation are suffering. Russiaʼs counter-sanctions, in particular the reduction of natural gas supplies to the EU, "bite" quite strongly. At the global level, Russiaʼs actions have caused a food crisis that the global South blames on Western sanctions. Nevertheless, some analysts believe that the Russian economy is suffering from structural damage, which for now is possible to hide. Though, the ruble exchange rate on the black market differs from the official one, Gazprom shares fell for the first time since 1998, import substitution doesnʼt work, and about half a million qualified workers have left the country. If the West is not exhausted and continues its current policy, the economic pressure on Russia will only increase, the author believes. At the same time, this is unlikely to make Putin give up: Cuba has been under sanctions for more than 60 years, but they have not led to regime change. Despite decades of sanctions, North Korea, led by Kim Jong-un, is expanding its nuclear arsenal. Jentleson believes that in order for sanctions to lead to a change in policy, two conditions must be met: there must be internal elites in the Russian Federation whose interests are harmed by sanctions, and the West must have a clear diplomatic strategy that will allow negotiations in exchange for concessions.
Nadia Kaneva, an associate professor at the University of Denver and a communications specialist, writes about the "Bravery" brand that Ukraine has been promoting since the start of the full-scale war in an essay on The Conversation. A recent Vogue article about the Ukrainian first lady, which sparked heated debate on social media, fits into an overall strategy by the Ukrainian government to keep the worldʼs attention focused on Ukrainians fighting against the Russian invasion. Kaneva studied how former communist countries used marketing strategies and came to the conclusion that the purpose of such strategies is not only to improve their image in the international arena, but also to find new meanings of national identities. The idea of the campaign "Ukrainian bravery" was developed by the Ukrainian advertising agency Banda shortly after February 24, and today the products of the campaign cover a variety of formats from billboards to juice packs. The geography of the campaign covers Ukraine and 17 countries of Europe and the USA, the costs of product production are covered by the government, and the media space is provided by the world mass media. Kaneva believes that this method of brand communication during the war is unprecedented, and highlights three main aspects: first, Ukraine speaks not only to the leaders of other countries, but also to the citizens of these countries, who can make a donation or put pressure on their government. Second, the campaign makes it possible to expand the visibility of the war beyond the news ― as, for example, in the case of the publication in Vogue. After all, the author writes, a very apt message was chosen for the Ukrainian campaign: "Be brave like Ukraine" ― it invites people to imagine better versions of themselves.